Picks, Week 8

Week 8 - Where my Eagles will undoubtedly give me a heart attack, and my fantasy teams will attempt to claw their way back to the middle of the pack.

Indianapolis (+9):

            This is a team that deserves its 0-6 record.  However, I cannot fathom laying nine points with a team that just lost by 34 at home.  That said, I have done the unthinkable in a fantasy league last week and traded for Chris Johnson.  Generally, if conventional wisdom is “x,” there is value in doing “y.”  Personal anecdotes notwithstanding, I think the Colts make a game of this.

Tennessee 20, Indianapolis 17

New Orleans (-13.5):

            On the other hand, the Rams are a team that not only has thoroughly merited their 0-6 record, but has struggled even to play remotely close games.  In four of their six games, they would not have covered a 17-point spread.  They cannot be trusted, even at home.

New Orleans 34, St. Louis 16

NY GIANTS (-9.5):

            Tim Tebow’s first 56 minutes of quarterbacking were ghastly.  This 0-7 team could not punish the Broncos for their ineptitude.  I see absolutely no reason why they should compete with the Giants on the road.  I am facing the Giants D in fantasy this week and I am truly terrified.  This one could (and should) get ugly.

NY Giants 30, Miami 13

Minnesota (+3.5):

            I recognize the superlative talents of Cam Newton.  However, this is still a rookie quarterback who is 2-5.  I loved wagering on him to cover spreads, feeling confident he could muster a garbage time drive, accumulate some fantasy points, and get his team close at the end.  It is another thing entirely to assume that a rookie will beat a decent NFL team handily.  Yes, I did call the Vikings a decent team, despite their quarterback situation. 

Carolina 23, Minnesota 21

Arizona (+12.5):

            After that debacle in Jacksonville, followed by a short-week of preparation, the line seems large, though I suppose an utter dismantling of the Cardinals at the ends of darker, more formidable birds seems plausible.  Lacking any confidence in this pick, I’ll take my chances with the Cards ability to play some semblance of defense, and keep it interesting.  Meanwhile, anyone want an over-under on a team-wide, Sharks vs. Jets style stand-off between the offense and defense?

Baltimore 20, Arizona 13

HOUSTON (-9.5):

            Short-week for the Jags, huge let-down after their surprising performance on Monday night, a road game against a team with a much more robust offense, pick one explanation.  Either way, the Jags are about to crash down to earth and remind us all why they were 9-point dogs at home on Monday night last week.

Houston 27, Jacksonville 14

BUFFALO (-4.5):

            The Redskins are a team quarterbacked by John Beck.  They have lost their previous two games by an average of 10-points to two teams whose combined record is currently 4-9.  They are traveling to face a team whose offensive weapons are legitimate…and Buffalo’s quarterback might best me on the Wonderlic.

Buffalo 31, Washington 17

Detroit (-3):

            Given the relative disparity in talent on the remainder of the rosters, wagering on the Broncos is tantamount to a guess that the Tebow from the final few minutes will arrive rather than the Tebow from the first 56 minutes.  Umm…I’ll take the greater body of evidence.  Moreover, if this game is close, Skip Bayless’s ego might expand and consume the earth.  This cannot be allowed.

Detroit 27, Denver 17

PITTSBURGH (+2.5):

            Hardest game on the board (in my humble opinion).  There are dozens of statistics which suggest the Patriots are the better team.  Brady seems to own the Steelers.  However, this is a game in Pittsburgh…in October, not January.  If the Patriots lose, they’ll be 6-2, having lost to a very good team on the road.  Not catastrophic.  If the Steelers lose, they’ll be answering questions about their inability to beat any of the contenders on their schedule (having already lost to Baltimore & Houston).  I think the Steelers handle their business.

Pittsburgh 24, New England 23

SAN FRANCISCO (-9):

            Raise your hand if you believe Colt McCoy can move the ball with any regularity on the road against a very solid 49ers defense… *waiting* … I did not raise my hand.  Laying nine points with Alex Smith feels like an act of madness.  Betting on Colt McCoy and a team from Ohio on the road feels like an act of madness.  I’ll pick my poison.

San Francisco 23, Cleveland 10

Cincinnati (-1):

            Unfortunately, this game is framed in my mind as the battle between the tangible and the intangible.  There is some intangible benefit to home games in Seattle.  However, the fact that Seattle’s offense last week made a Big Ten battle in December, circa 1970 seem like an offensive explosion by comparison is tangible.  The Seahawks can be manhandled by a competent defense.

Cincinnati 20, Seattle 16

Dallas (+3):

            I’m already nauseated.  The best argument in the Eagles’ favor is “Andy Reid is 12-0 following bye weeks.”  What in Andy Reid’s performance this season suggests that his presence on the Eagles’ sideline is a positive?  The next argument is “the Eagles need this game.”  Explain to me why the Cowboys don’t?  Nothing, and I mean nothing, would surprise me in this game, including a 30-point win for either side.  Given my utter lack of knowledge and my utter horror regarding my Eagles in general, I’ll take 3-points and close my eyes.

Philadelphia 27, Dallas 24 (I HOPE)

San Diego (-3):

            Arrowhead home-field advantage on a Monday night…I hate going the other way, but we’re approaching the time of year where the Chargers turn the corner and besides, I can’t get excited about Matt Cassel and Jackie Battle.  Not confident, but I’ll take Philip Rivers & co.

San Diego 24, Kansas City 17

Picks, Week 7

Week 7 - Where my Eagles have a bye, my fantasy teams have an opportunity to pry themselves from the depths of putrescence into the less odorous arms of mediocrity, and Brits are given the gift of watching "american football."  

Seattle (+3):

            Given the wins accumulated by these Browns (rookie’s first start against the Bengals & a Colts team that looks as though they are looking for a little luck…next season), and the Seahawks ability to stop the run, I think this game stays low scoring, and the artists formerly known by TMQ as the blue man group hang on.

Seattle 20, Cleveland 16

DETROIT (-4):

            The Falcons are away from their beloved dome, the Lions are irritated following their loss to the 49ers, and though their best player’s nickname refers to a toy made for small children, I still think they have enough in this one.  Meanwhile, the boy named Suh is likely to wreak real havoc in this one…Turner is big, north/south runner…and Suh is, well, bigger.

Detroit 31, Atlanta 21

Houston (+3):

            Fine, I get that the Texans are chronic underachievers.  I realize the Titans are better than people expect.  I’ll still take three points.  The Texans consistently break the hearts of their supporters in road games against stiff competition.  These aren’t Manning’s Colts or the equivalent.

Houston 27, Tennessee 24

MIAMI (+1):

            Umm…Tim Tebow may in fact be the second coming given the amazing fact reported that despite winning a heisman trophy and a national championship he chose not to fornicate with any of the thousands of delicious, young co-eds at the University of Florida.  Despite this, perhaps the most remarkable of his accomplishments, he is not a superhuman quarterback.  I might take my chances with him in fantasy, but this is still a rookie QB making his first meaningful start on the road.

Miami 20, Denver 17

San Diego (+1):

            If the Chargers weren’t traveling east here, I would imagine they’d be laying 4 points…easily.  The Jets are simply not a championship caliber team, regardless of how vociferously their coach insists otherwise.  The Chargers, regardless of how ineffectual their coach turns out to be, still display considerable talent.

San Diego 24, NY Jets 19

Chicago (-1):

            At least our friends across the pond receive a football game worth watching this time around.  This seems like a let-down game for the Bucs following their upset of the Saints while the Bears seem to have learned how to protect Cutler…which if they have, will make them formidable.  “Good game then! Pip pip, cheerio!”

Chicago 23, Tampa Bay 20

CAROLINA (-1.5):

            I’m supposed to take John Beck on the road here?  Against a quarterback who seems a virtual guarantee to create two decent drives against anyone.  Nope, sorry, I’ll lay points with a 1-5 team (who lost to the Saints, Bears, Packers, and Falcons).  Steve Smith should be thanking whatever deity he worships for his newfound relevance. 

Carolina 24, Washington 13

Kansas City (+3.5):

            I accept that Darren McFadden is talented.  But Kyle Boller?  How can I lay points with a guy so inept that his team was willing to invest two first-round picks for a guy whose last receivers were probably his children in the backyard?  Despite the Raiders penchant for deals that boggle the mind and challenge human logic, not even they would have made the deal they made were the coaches remotely confident in Boller…so I’m not either!

Kansas City 20, Oakland 16

Pittsburgh (-3.5): 

I am currently in Pittsburgh, celebrating my grandmother’s 90^th birthday.  This town’s priorities announce themselves immediately upon your arrival at the airport.  Two statues greet travelers.  The first is George Washington, whose importance to our nation is unmistakable.  The second is Franco Harris.   My cousin, when asked whether the Sunday affair for my grandmother was a lunch or a dinner, his reply, incredulously, was “a lunch, the Steelers have an afternoon game!” 

Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 17

DALLAS (-13.5):

            A.J. Feeley on the road.  The Rams have lost their five games by an average of  17.6 points.  Even the inconsistent Tony Romo should find a way to get it done here.  Meanwhile, if A.J. Feeley wins this game, he can add it to a list of improbable accomplishments which is topped by his landing Heather Mitts.

Dallas 34, St. Louis 13

Green Bay (-9.5):

            Not enough points.  This isn’t Brett Favre in a dome, this is Aaron Rodgers vs. Christian Ponder.  This is a team being discussed in 16-0 terms (I don’t believe they will) against a team in the running for Andrew Luck (I don’t believe they will either).  I will continue to lay points with the mighty cheeseheads until given reason to do otherwise.

Green Bay 31, Minnesota 17

NEW ORLEANS (-14):

 I cannot believe that I am laying 37 points combined on this and the previous two games.  I am ill just thinking about it.  Ok, not that ill.  Brees vs. Painter.  New Orleans dome vs. Colts on the road.  Suck for Luck vs. a team coming off a disappointing loss to a division rival.  Here comes a blowout.

New Orleans 34, Indianapolis 10

Baltimore (-9): 

            46 points in four games.  Ye gods.  Blaine Gabbert vs. the Ravens ‘D.  The NFL scheduling responsible for this monstrosity of a MNF matchup must be kicking themselves.  Who, outside of Balitmore (small market), Jacksonville (small, disinterested market), and fantasy football fans (most of who do not own any Jags outside of MJD) will watch this game?  Oh right, gamblers…you know, if that were legal.

Baltimore 27, Jacksonville 10

Picks, Week 6

Week 6 - The last stand for my birds...and probably my fantasy teams.  Good grief.  Where the heck is the NBA for some much-needed distraction?           

Carolina (+3.5):  Firstly, Cam Newton seems to be a robot sent from an another galaxy to steal goal-line carries and cover spreads.  Secondly, Atlanta is one fluke impact between Michael Vick and Todd Herremans away from a 1-4 record.  Thirdly, to wager against Cam is to presume that the game will be so out of hand as to render his garbage-time, “screw it, I’m getting this ball down the field myself” irrelevant.

Atlanta 24, Carolina 23

Indianapolis (+6.5):  The Colts are dreadful.  The Bengals are, well, still the Bengals.  Andy Dalton has convinced me that he is not incompetent.  Unfortunately, this seems like a low-scoring, ugly ball-game.  That does not, to me, seem like an opportunity to lay significant points.

Cincinnati 19, Indianapolis 14

San Francisco (+4):  Do I believe in San Francisco?  Well, their quarterback is still Alex Smith, who did not awaken this season to discover he is secretly incubating legitimate talent.  That said, their defense is absolutely legitimate, and the Lions still strike me as a team that while capable of thrilling wins and providing causes for home, is not dominant. 

Detroit 20, San Francisco 17

GREEN BAY (-14):  Once again, I believe the Packers can name their score in this one.  The Rams cannot stop the run and no one can stop Rodgers and company.  My biggest question in this game is whether James Starks and Jermichael Finley are viable fantasy starters.  The Packers can score on anyone with any number of weapons.  If I could wager on Packers (16-0) at, say +1200, I’d probably take it.

Green Bay 38, St. Louis 17

Buffalo (+3):  I don’t think either team can stop the other in this one.  There are plenty of reasons to pick the G-Men and forget, but I just don’t see this game as anything other than a shootout coin-flip.  I’ll take the points and cross my fingers.

Buffalo 31, NY Giants 28

PITTSBURGH (-12.5): “In Jones-Drew's career he has faced the Steelers three times in the regular season and once in the postseason. The combined rushing total of his four games is 27 attempts for 109 yards and two rushing touchdowns.” If MJD can’t generate offense for the Jags, who will?

Pittsburgh 27, Jacksonville 10

Philadelphia (-3):  Given the Eagles predilection for coughing up games that are absolutely winnable, the spread is almost irrelevant.  One of two things is going to occur.  Either the Eagles actually show up and dominate the Redskins, who are a soft 3-1 theoretically, lacking the weapons to score with the birds, and thus, win this game by a couple touchdowns, or once again, they piss away every opportunity to actually score points after moving the ball up and down the field…and lose in the end.  I think they get it done here.

Philadelphia 34, Washington 20

OAKLAND (-6.5):  Firstly, read Rick Reilly’s piece on Al Davis – his less than reverential tone was refreshing after the echoing praise of a deceased man whose life’s accomplishments are a decidedly mixed bag.  Secondly, his disembodied soul probably is worth a couple points here anyway in dramatic motivation.  Thirdly, I think my second comment is B.S.   That said, I’m not taking Colt McCoy on the road here (though I am starting him in fantasy over Matt Schaub on a hunch…)

Oakland 24, Cleveland 17

BALTIMORE (-7):  The best pass defense in the NFL…Andre Johnson on the sidelines…the Texans being, well, the Texans who can never be trusted.  I would not be surprised if the Texans make a run in this game, but I could also see this getting out of hand, especially without Mario Williams to generate a pass rush.

Baltimore 31, Houston 16

NEW ENGLAND (-6):  Until proven otherwise, I assume the Patriots can score on anyone at anytime.  In fact, without a fluky interception off a dropped pass, the Pats win against the Jets by an even more jarring margin.  I expect very few punts in this game, but a couple turnovers from Romo and a couple Cowboys drives ending in 3, not 7 will suffice.

New England 38, Dallas 27

New Orleans (-6):  The Bucs can’t score enough in this one.  The Saints are going to score 30+ points in essentially every game they play.  Are you willing to wager that the Bucs, with a less effective Josh Freeman, and Earnest Graham in the backfield, can score 27?  I am not.

New Orleans 31, Tampa Bay 17

Minnesota (+1):  Good grief.  This is going to be a very difficult game to watch.  The Vikings will struggle to move the ball with McNabb, especially if the Bears do a legitimate job corralling Adrian Peterson.  That said, most games are won and lost in the trenches, and I believe the Vikings front seven will overwhelm the Bears’ offensive line.  That’ll be enough.

Minnesota 19, Chicago 17

NY JETS (-6.5):  Matt Moore on the road against an excellent defense.  Re-read the previous sentence.  If your financial life was on the line, and Matt Moore were about to stare down a Ryan defense, how many pairs of underwear would you require?

NY Jets 24, Miami 13

Picks, Week 5

Week 5 - When my Eagles decide if they are a year-long laughingstock or simply underachievers and my fantasy football teams look to extricate themselves from the basement of their respective leagues!

Philadelphia (-2.5):

            The Eagles are a thoroughly flawed football team, and have given their fans ample cause for disdain (as if the Phillies 102-win exit was not sufficient).  However, they are still tremendously talented, and playing a team that has over-performed its abilities.  This is a shootout and the Eagles certainly can move the ball against anyone.

Philadelphia 34, Buffalo 28 

Kansas City (+1):

            Indianapolis is deciding whether to go with Curtis Painter or Kerry Collins.  They scored two touchdowns last week as a result of thoroughly busted coverage.  I will not wager on its recurrence.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs, in beating the Vikings upgraded themselves in my eyes from downright putrid to moderately odorous.  Moderately odorous is sufficient against these Colts.

Kansas City 17, Indianapolis 13

Minnesota (-3):

            The Vikings cannot possibly be this bad.  Adrian Peterson must be worth 2-3 wins all by himself, which frankly, ain’t a terrible strategy at this point.  Kolb has shown himself to be thoroughly unspectacular, though he is competent.  If the Vikings lose this game, at home, against a week opponent, not only will the Christian Ponder / Donovan Mcnabb debates begin in earnest, but so too will the Ponder / Luck debates.

Minnesota 20, Arizona 16

NY GIANTS (–9.5):

            Tavaris Jackson on the road against a very good pass rush.  West coast team traveling three time zones east.  Ugly blue uniforms against slightly less ugly blue uniforms.  No Jacobs should result in a huge day for Ahmad Bradshaw in fantasy…(right?)

NY Giants 31, Seattle 17

PITTSBURGH (-3):

            The Titans are better than advertised.  The Steelers are worse.  Fine…but do you really want to bet on the Titans walking into among the most intimidating home-field environments in professional sports with only three points in your pocket?  Something tells me the Steelers will avoid stinking this season.

Pittsburgh 24, Tennessee 17

CAROLINA (+6.5):

            Cam Newton is quickly becoming the king of the back-door cover.  The only justification now for laying points against him is if you are supremely confident that either the Panthers will not move the ball for 3+ quarters (doubt it) or that the Saints will score 40+ (also doubt it).  Cam Newton is a great gambling weapon and fantasy weapon…eventually he’ll win real football games.

New Orleans 27, Carolina 24

Oakland (+5.5):

            Perhaps the Raiders will be motivated by the overdue departure of their addled owner.  Perhaps Andre Johnson’s absence will render the potent passing attack of the Texans utterly impotent.  Or maybe, just maybe the Texans will be the Texans and fail to dominate a team to which they are superior.  Pick one.

Houston 27, Oakland 24

Cincinnati (-1):

            The Bengals do not stink…the Jaguars absolutely stink, have virtually no home-field advantage, and are probably dreaming of Andrew Luck..  Yes, I am laying points on the road with a team from Ohio, may the lightning bolts avoid me tonight.

Cincinnati 16, Jacksonville 13

Tampa Bay (+2.5):

            We all remember the 49ers falling behind 23-3 to the Eagles, who with any red zone proficiency whatsoever could have been up 35-3.  We all recall the fact that the Eagles put up 500 yards of offense on these guys.  Alex Smith is still Alex Smith.  Yes, they can stop the run…and Josh Freeman will pass gladly.

Tampa Bay 20, San Francisco 17

San Diego (-3.5):

            Hypothetically…if this were a brand new universe in which we had no preconceived notions of the Chargers or Norv Turner…and we simply looked at their statistics and their roster…why in g-ds name wouldn’t we think they would kill the Broncos?  Fine, so this is not such a scenario, but despite their ineptitude, I still think they’re a touchdown better.

San Diego 24, Denver 17

NEW ENGLAND (-7.5):

            Which type of game will this be?  The playoff game in which the Jets stunned the Pats in Foxborogh…or the regular season, 45-3 beat-down a few weeks before?  Unlike the Bills, the Pats have their eyes on the Jets.  Meanwhile, Mark Sanchez just played a game last week that several notable statisticians are describing as the worst game ever played by a quarterback.  While I would love to show these people some clips of Ryan Leaf, I still can’t see the Jets staying in this one.

New England 38, NY Jets 20

Green Bay (-5.5):

            Until proven otherwise, Green Bay is an electric offense that will light up anyone.  If the Eagles can score 31 points in Atlanta without having Vick for an entire quarter, I can only imagine what Rodgers and crew can accomplish. 

Green Bay 38, Atlanta 28

Chicago (+5):

            While Detroit’s 4-0 start is certainly an excellent story, let us not forget the 20 point deficits they’ve faced in the previous two weeks.  That’s not a recipe for continued success and certainly not a recipe for covering spreads.  I would not be surprised if Chicago beats them in this game.  Then again, Chicago tends to rip out their fan’s hearts.

Detroit 20, Chicago 17