Conference Championship Picks

It's the best day of football of the year...

Picks:

Baltimore (+7):  Definitely found this line more palatable when the Ravens were receiving 9 points rather than a touchdown, and was strongly considering taking the Patriots given the game’s locations and Tom Brady being, well, Tom Brady.  Then I realized the following:  The Patriots have played, including last week, four games this season against teams that qualified for the playoffs.  They are 2-2.  The two wins are against Tebow’s Broncos.  The Ravens, including last week’s win over the Texans, are 7-0 against playoff teams with two wins over Pittsburgh and Cincy, a win over the 49ers, and two wins against the Texans, the first of which occurred with Matt Schaub still at the helm.  Yes, the Ravens have found ways to come up small against inferior teams (SD, Sea, Ten, Jax), but have consistently proven their mettle against the stiffest competition.  Too much evidence to ignore…

Baltimore 24, New England 23

SAN FRANCISCO (-2):  I quit.  I’ve underestimated these guys all year long, and paid for it repeatedly.  5-1 against playoff teams (their loss coming in Baltimore), having made plays on both sides of the ball for weeks now, this team looks like a team that deserves a superbowl berth.  I believe they will earn one.  The Giants are formidable, with the ability to harass quarterbacks and make plays down the field.  That said, their victory last week had as much to do with the Packers’ inability to catch the football as it did with anything accomplished by their front four.  Moreover, the Giants, last week notwithstanding, do not perform when the world expects them to.  In fact, last week might not even represent a refutation of that notion…after all they were over a touchdown underdog against a 15-1 team playing in Lambeau.

San Francisco 26, NY Giants 24

Picks, Divisional Sunday

Tebow is gone.   Phew.

BALTIMORE (-9):  The question becomes, do I think T.J. Yates can walk into Baltimore in January and play respectably.  Nine points seems like quite a bit for a game whose total is listed at 36.5, but I just can’t see my way clear to backing a third string quarterback on the road against a team that did not lose at home this season and is itching for a trip to the superbowl.   Last week against Cincy, Houston was buoyed by 35 carries on the ground for 188 yards and two scores.  Andy Dalton threw three interceptions, one of which was returned for six.  I cannot imagine Baltimore providing such generous advantages for the rookie quarterback in a hostile environment.  While I can numerous sound numerical arguments in favor of taking the nine points, not only would this violate the famed Bill Simmons Manifesto (never take an underdog on the road unless you think they can win), but it would demand backing a rookie QB on the road with (albeit aging) Ray Lewis and Ed Reed staring him down.  …No thanks.

Baltimore 27, Houston 13

GREEN BAY (-7.5):  Firstly, this seems like the proverbial case of “when everyone is doing one thing, do the other.”  The Giants dominated a Falcons team with a QB who has never won a playoff game on a team that basically functions well indoors exclusively. The betting public as a whole is rallying around this story of the Giants recapturing the magic of 2007, the parallels between this game and their superbowl win over the juggernaut Patriots (who they had also lost to 38-35 in a regular season meeting), and the chic revelation that Eli Manning is an elite quarterback.  Ahem.  This season, Eli went for 29 TDs and 16 INTs.  Mr. Discount Double-Check went for 49 & 6.  Any idea how many times this season the Packers won by fewer than 8 points at home?  The answer is none.  The Giants play their best when no one believes in them, when the world expects a collapse, case in point, their win against New England (which, btw, was their sole win against a playoff team).  However, when the world expects a top-level performance, they have come up small (see: two losses to Washington, home against Seattle).  The world is expecting the Giants to upset a 15-1 team in Lambeau.  The Packers outscored their opponents by over 200 points this season, despite having virtually no motivation for the final two weeks.  The Giants did not outscore their opponents this season.  I would love to take the sexy underdog – but I just don’t see it happening.

Green Bay 38, New York 24

Picks, Divisional Saturday

It's the most wonderful time of the year...Unfortunately, I am missing my little cousin's Bat Mitzvah in Pittsburgh due to poorly-timed Midwestern snowstorms.  My only consolation is the football that I will be able to watch.

Picks:

New Orleans (-3.5):  This is the most unpleasant spread for the gambler.  Had I seen a -3, I lay the points and rest easy.  Should the spread have been -4, I probably swing in the other direction, knowing I’m still pushing a 27-23, 24-20, or 21-17 loss.   In any case, what ultimately makes this pick for me is the notion of Alex Smith playing his first playoff game, Jim Harbaugh (despite his considerable success this season) coaching his first playoff game, and the notion that I cannot see Sean Peyton’s offense stymied entirely.  Though the Saints have absolutely been a different team on the road this season, I refer to the wisdom of Ron Jaworski on PTI yesterday as he summarized this football game by noting that the Saints, in the red zone, score touchdowns.  The 49ers kick field goals.  I do think this is going to be a reasonably close game, but I am confident Brees & co. will muster a meaningful 4^th quarter drive for a score.  That will be enough to cover.

New Orleans 27, San Francisco 23

NEW ENGLAND (-13.5):  I have been wrong on Tim Tebow more consistently this season than any other quarterback, though I do tend to think Pittsburgh simplified his reads more last weekend than any offensive coordinator ever could have.  Man-to-man, press-coverage, no safety?  So, basically, this is like standing on the playground with one receiver on either side, and chucking it up to the kid who gets farther away from his guy?  Stare down the faster kid and then lob one up?  But I digress.  The problem in this game, in addition to the anointed one playing in Foxborough in January (which once meant something), last time these teams met, the Pats hung 40 on the Broncos.  I see no reason to expect any other outcome.  Thus, not only must the anointed one avoid mistakes and maintain possession for extended periods of time, but must somehow also score 25+.  I doubt he does…and brace for my error.

New England 38, Denver 20 

Picks, Wildcard Sunday

Two favorites covered yesterday, why not today?

NY GIANTS (-3):  This game bothers me considerably, given the Giants’ penchant for playing poorly when favored, the letdown factor following their dismantling of the Cowboys season. And Eli’s occasional stinker for which we may be due.  However, the Falcons have not beaten a single playoff team this season and derive a considerable advantage of playing in their dome.  The Falcons blow out bad teams in Atlanta, but struggle to demonstrate that elite level performance elsewhere.  If Eli avoids turnovers, the Giants win this football game – and I am venturing to say that will occur.   Not thrilled about this pick, though.

New York 28, Atlanta 24

PITTSBURGH (-9):  This game is the most unpleasant on the board, by a considerable margin.  The Steelers are missing their starting running back and their center, their quarterback is hobbled, their defense is banged up, and their playing in Denver, where the homefield advantage is considerable.  I’d feel a lot better if this line was -7…but it ain’t.  Tim Tebow has only faced two teams that qualified for the playoffs, and lost by 18 & 35 points.  The bottom line is this, I believe the Steelers will manage two or three scoring drives offensively (let’s say 10-17 points), get one turnover in Denver territory (3-7), and have one decent punt return / poor punt from deep in Broncos territory set up another FG (3 points).  Doing the math here, that’s 16-27 points for the Steelers…which seems appropriate.  Now, do you want to bet the Broncos will be above the 7-16 point range with Tebow against a top-flight defense?   I do not.

Pittsburgh 20, Denver 10

Picks, Wildcard Saturday

Well, it's playoff time...time for Tim Tebow's cult of personality to either disappear or rival the late Kim Jong Il, time for the Texans & Bengals to see whose rookie quarterback soils the bed the least, time for Brees, Rodgers, and Brady to continue to break records, and time for Roethlisberger to attempt to reach his fourth superbowl.

Saturday Picks:

HOUSTON (-4):  The Bill Simmons playoff gambling manifesto asserts as an immutable law that one should never back a rookie quarterback on the road in a playoff game.  I presume he did not concoct such an adage for the circumstances this afternoon in which a rookie quarterback will travel to face another rookie quarterback who was a third stringer a couple months ago and when injured recently, gave way to the shell-shocked Jake Delhomme.  As I remember this same quarterback defeating my Eagles in the conference championship in January of 2004, I actually feel nauseated (cue Chris Berman chanting “daylight come and you’ve gotta Delhomme!”)…but I digress.  With Andre Johnson and two solid NFL running backs, I think the Texans can manage to put together a few drives.  I think Andy Dalton, for all his accomplishments this season, will not be enough here.  Either way, this is a game for the right to be humiliated by the Pats or Ravens…

Houston 20, Cincinnati 13

NEW ORLEANS (-10.5):  Bill Simmons playoff gambling manifesto rules also stipulate that one should never back a road underdog without believing they can win the game outright.  Frankly, I needn’t deploy that “rule” in this case to arrive at the same conclusion.  The Saints have failed to win a home game by 11+ points only once this season (40-33 over the Texans in week 3).   Of those eight home games, four of them were against current playoff teams, and one was against the Bears while Cutler & Forte were still healthy.  Bottom-line, the Saints light people up in that dome and I cannot see the Lions, who allowed Matt Flynn to perform an admirable impression of, well, Drew Brees, actually stopping Drew Brees.

New Orleans 38, Detroit 24