Picks, Week 8

Week 8 - Where my Eagles will undoubtedly give me a heart attack, and my fantasy teams will attempt to claw their way back to the middle of the pack.

Indianapolis (+9):

            This is a team that deserves its 0-6 record.  However, I cannot fathom laying nine points with a team that just lost by 34 at home.  That said, I have done the unthinkable in a fantasy league last week and traded for Chris Johnson.  Generally, if conventional wisdom is “x,” there is value in doing “y.”  Personal anecdotes notwithstanding, I think the Colts make a game of this.

Tennessee 20, Indianapolis 17

New Orleans (-13.5):

            On the other hand, the Rams are a team that not only has thoroughly merited their 0-6 record, but has struggled even to play remotely close games.  In four of their six games, they would not have covered a 17-point spread.  They cannot be trusted, even at home.

New Orleans 34, St. Louis 16

NY GIANTS (-9.5):

            Tim Tebow’s first 56 minutes of quarterbacking were ghastly.  This 0-7 team could not punish the Broncos for their ineptitude.  I see absolutely no reason why they should compete with the Giants on the road.  I am facing the Giants D in fantasy this week and I am truly terrified.  This one could (and should) get ugly.

NY Giants 30, Miami 13

Minnesota (+3.5):

            I recognize the superlative talents of Cam Newton.  However, this is still a rookie quarterback who is 2-5.  I loved wagering on him to cover spreads, feeling confident he could muster a garbage time drive, accumulate some fantasy points, and get his team close at the end.  It is another thing entirely to assume that a rookie will beat a decent NFL team handily.  Yes, I did call the Vikings a decent team, despite their quarterback situation. 

Carolina 23, Minnesota 21

Arizona (+12.5):

            After that debacle in Jacksonville, followed by a short-week of preparation, the line seems large, though I suppose an utter dismantling of the Cardinals at the ends of darker, more formidable birds seems plausible.  Lacking any confidence in this pick, I’ll take my chances with the Cards ability to play some semblance of defense, and keep it interesting.  Meanwhile, anyone want an over-under on a team-wide, Sharks vs. Jets style stand-off between the offense and defense?

Baltimore 20, Arizona 13

HOUSTON (-9.5):

            Short-week for the Jags, huge let-down after their surprising performance on Monday night, a road game against a team with a much more robust offense, pick one explanation.  Either way, the Jags are about to crash down to earth and remind us all why they were 9-point dogs at home on Monday night last week.

Houston 27, Jacksonville 14

BUFFALO (-4.5):

            The Redskins are a team quarterbacked by John Beck.  They have lost their previous two games by an average of 10-points to two teams whose combined record is currently 4-9.  They are traveling to face a team whose offensive weapons are legitimate…and Buffalo’s quarterback might best me on the Wonderlic.

Buffalo 31, Washington 17

Detroit (-3):

            Given the relative disparity in talent on the remainder of the rosters, wagering on the Broncos is tantamount to a guess that the Tebow from the final few minutes will arrive rather than the Tebow from the first 56 minutes.  Umm…I’ll take the greater body of evidence.  Moreover, if this game is close, Skip Bayless’s ego might expand and consume the earth.  This cannot be allowed.

Detroit 27, Denver 17

PITTSBURGH (+2.5):

            Hardest game on the board (in my humble opinion).  There are dozens of statistics which suggest the Patriots are the better team.  Brady seems to own the Steelers.  However, this is a game in Pittsburgh…in October, not January.  If the Patriots lose, they’ll be 6-2, having lost to a very good team on the road.  Not catastrophic.  If the Steelers lose, they’ll be answering questions about their inability to beat any of the contenders on their schedule (having already lost to Baltimore & Houston).  I think the Steelers handle their business.

Pittsburgh 24, New England 23

SAN FRANCISCO (-9):

            Raise your hand if you believe Colt McCoy can move the ball with any regularity on the road against a very solid 49ers defense… *waiting* … I did not raise my hand.  Laying nine points with Alex Smith feels like an act of madness.  Betting on Colt McCoy and a team from Ohio on the road feels like an act of madness.  I’ll pick my poison.

San Francisco 23, Cleveland 10

Cincinnati (-1):

            Unfortunately, this game is framed in my mind as the battle between the tangible and the intangible.  There is some intangible benefit to home games in Seattle.  However, the fact that Seattle’s offense last week made a Big Ten battle in December, circa 1970 seem like an offensive explosion by comparison is tangible.  The Seahawks can be manhandled by a competent defense.

Cincinnati 20, Seattle 16

Dallas (+3):

            I’m already nauseated.  The best argument in the Eagles’ favor is “Andy Reid is 12-0 following bye weeks.”  What in Andy Reid’s performance this season suggests that his presence on the Eagles’ sideline is a positive?  The next argument is “the Eagles need this game.”  Explain to me why the Cowboys don’t?  Nothing, and I mean nothing, would surprise me in this game, including a 30-point win for either side.  Given my utter lack of knowledge and my utter horror regarding my Eagles in general, I’ll take 3-points and close my eyes.

Philadelphia 27, Dallas 24 (I HOPE)

San Diego (-3):

            Arrowhead home-field advantage on a Monday night…I hate going the other way, but we’re approaching the time of year where the Chargers turn the corner and besides, I can’t get excited about Matt Cassel and Jackie Battle.  Not confident, but I’ll take Philip Rivers & co.

San Diego 24, Kansas City 17