Picks, Week 16

Week 16, where remarkably, the Eagles are not mathematically eliminated, and both of my fantasy football teams have unceremoniously shuffled off into the consolation brackets.

Thursday Night Pick:

INDIANAPOLIS (+7):  Home team, short week of preparation, getting a touchdown against a rookie, 3rd string quarterback making his 4th career NFL start.  If the team on which I were wagering were any team other than the 1-13 Colts, this would be a trivial decision.  However, it is the putrid Colts, who might actually be set up for a letdown game following their phoenix-like rise from the depths of winlessness.  That said, I believe the pressure of avoiding 0-16 is a weight off their shoulders.  This game will be respectable.

Houston 20, Indianapolis 17

Denver (-2.5):  Tim Tebow crashed to earth last week, finally losing a game to a superior quarterback on a superior team.  That said, he didn’t exactly play poorly.  Currently, given Houston’s loss on Thursday, the Broncos still have an outside shot at the #3 seed in the playoffs, which would spare them playing the Ravens/Steelers first.  The Bills, on the other hand, are in a state of free fall.  I see no reason the Broncos defense can’t contain the Bills while Tebow puts up just enough offensively to win.

Denver 20, Buffalo 17

Arizona (+4.5):  Don’t look now, but the Cardinals have won six of their last seven games.  The Bengals meanwhile, are facing down the prospect of missing the playoffs after a 6-2 start to the season and might not have the experience to stave off the inevitable disappointment.  Expect one or two big plays from Fitzgerald, and one or two key rookie mistakes from Dalton…oh…and the  Bengals had better not punt to Patrick Peterson.

Arizona 20, Cincinnati 19

TENNESSEE (-7):  With the exclusion of their 41-point outburst against a Buccaneers team that should be on a milk carton right about now (because they haven’t shown up in months), the Jags simply do not score points.  The Titans, though they are clearly not an offensive juggernaut, should manage to reach a respectable total.  In a game like this, that should be sufficient.

Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 13

Oakland (+1):  This has letdown written all over it.  The Chiefs, playing the defensive game of their lives, stymie Rodgers and company and defeat a 13-0 team.  Now, they face a Raiders team that still has playoff aspirations.  Moreover, despite the collapse against Detroit, the Raiders have shown they can move the ball, and the Chiefs still are limited offensively. 

Oakland 20, Kansas City 13

NEW ENGLAND (-9):  If the opponent was any equally mediocre team other than the Dolphins, who seem to have the Pats’ number, I think this line might be 12+ points.  That said,  the Patriots can sniff that #1 seed, and when Tom Brady’s opposite number is the hardly Canton-bound Matt Moore,  I cannot see the Dolphins possessing the artillery to keep it close.

New England 31, Miami 17

New York Giants (+3):  Firstly, this is not a road game by any traditional definition.  Sure, they might find themselves in the visitor’s locker room, and some fans will wear green, but the travel is non-existent.  Secondly, the Giants know that they are in control of their own destiny against a Jets team which was absolutely manhandled by the Eagles last week.  While I will be rooting vociferously against the G-men this afternoon, I do expect them to pull it off.

New York Giants 24, New York Jets, 20

St. Louis (+12):  Wow.  I cannot determine what is more unsettling, the fact that this line is asking us to lay 12-points with Charlie Batch, or the fact that I actually gave that legitimate consideration.  The Rams defense is certainly not the equal of the 49ers defense that stymied an immobile Roethlisberger last Monday night.  However, Charlie Batch is hardly a dominant NFL signal caller.  Expect Clemens to play conservatively, the Steelers to try to run the ball constantly, and the game to stay close enough to make 12-points too much.

Pittsburgh 20, St. Louis 16

Minnesota (+7):  Other than the incentives to “Suck for Luck,” I would actually consider the Vikings nearly equal to the Redskins.  Grossman has his moments of seeming talented, and simultaneously, horrifying anyone who backs him.  Adrian Peterson will probably see 20-snaps, and Percy Harvin has, of late, become the electric playmaker we all expected him to be from his days at Florida.  The Vikings do enough here, then miraculously lose at the end…

Washington 21, Vikings 20

CAROLINA (-9):  Another game that makes me somewhat nauseated.  The Buccaneers haven’t won a game since mid-October.  Only twice in that span has the margin of defeat been less than a touchdown.  The last time these two teams met, I eagerly started Mr. Blount in fantasy football, certain that he would run roughshod over a porous Carolina run defense.  11 carries for 19 yards later, I lost all faith in the Bucs.  This wager reflects a vote of no-confidence.

Carolina 27, Tampa Bay 13

Cleveland (+12.5):  As has often been the case with my Cleveland wagers, I constantly return to my belief that this team can play solid NFL defense.  Thus, to lay 12.5 points against them, one must feel comfortable in expecting them not to score 10 points.  I think they make just enough plays here, and the Ravens, though they are still gunning for a 1^st round bye, will not light up the scoreboard here:

Baltimore 20, Cleveland 13

San Diego (+1):  Let’s review.  It’s December.  The Chargers were highly disappointing for the majority of this season.  The pundits called for the head of Norv Turner.  Now, despite a massive losing streak previously, the Chargers have an outside shot at the playoffs.  Have we seen this script before?  Now it is time to ride the Chargers.

San Diego 31, Detroit 27

DALLAS (-1):  Oh, how I wish it weren’t so.  The Eagles have, once again, convinced the media and their fans that with a couple breaks, they could make a miraculous recovery and find themselves in the playoffs.  Now, they can break our hearts once again.  The only mitigating factor is Tony Romo’s well-accepted ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory when winter comes.  Of course, in this case, Romo is not the problem.  Expect both teams to make grizzly mistakes…and the Cowboys to make a play down the stretch.

Dallas 31, Philadelphia 27

San Francisco (-1):  I could probably talk myself into betting the Seahawks, winners of five of their last six, certainly a sizable homefield advantage, a short week of preparation for the 49ers, etc.  However, the 49ers want that bye, and have not allowed a rushing TD all season…beast mode may be ineffective today.  Now isn’t a time to get cute.  I’ll take the better team laying one and move on.

San Francisco 19, Seattle 13

GREEN BAY (-11):  I will not over-analyze this.  The Bears just lost at home by 24 to Tavaris Jackson.  They now start Josh McCown.  If their opponent was an average team, one might still lay 11-points.  Today, they face the best team in the NFL.  Remember, despite a poor showing, they are 13-1, not 7-7.  Expect a handful of discount double-checks®, and some boneheaded offensive plays by the Bears which lead to points the other way.

Green Bay 30, Chicago 13

NEW ORLEANS (-7):  This offensive has been a buzz-saw, especially in their dome.  The Saints have failed to score 30 points exactly one at home (they scored 27).  The Falcons are not a dominant road team.  Make a conservative assumption that the Saints score 31-34 points.  How confident are you that the Falcons score 24-27?  I won’t bet on it.

New Orleans 34, Atlanta 23

Picks, Week 15

Week 15, where the Eagles should officially be laid to rest, and one fantasy football team attempts to earn a place in the superbowl while the other attempts to avoid a last-place finish in the consolation bracket.  

Thursday Night Pick:

ATLANTA (-13.5):  Rookie QB…in a dome…off a short week…against a team that will be pumped up to play.  This has rout written all over it.  If the Jags hadn’t dropped 41 last week against the hapless Buccaneers, who somehow forgot to address the single offensive threat on the field from the Jags, then this line could have been even more obscene.  Actually, this line was -11 a couple days ago…shows where the money is headed.

Atlanta 30, Tampa Bay 13

Saturday Night Pick::

TAMPA BAY (+7):  Short week of preparation for the visitors, a quarterback who seems allergic to the month of December, and the disheartening turnaround following a dispiriting loss to the Giants.  As for the Bucs, they are rather miserable themselves.  Something tells me that they'll find a way to perform respectably tonight, even if I am sitting Mr. Blount on two fantasy football teams given my frustration with his and his team's inconsistency.  When in doubt, take a touchdown and hope Jerry Jones intimidates his players much like the giant, green, wizard of oz that he is...

Tampa Bay 24, Dallas 23

BUFFALO (-1):  Last week, Miami looked utterly lost against an Eagles team that looks utterly lost against almost anyone competent.  However, with half of their offensive line sidelined with injuries, competence was too much to hope for.  I think the Bills have enough to win a cold-weather game at home against a team from Florida.  Tough call here, but I’ll take the home team.

Buffalo 21, Miami 20

Seattle (+3.5):  After watching the Bears offense, or lack thereof without Cutler and Forte, I cannot see how laying more than a field goal would make sense.  Figure one or two “beast” runs from Lynch, a couple legitimate throws down the field, and then, just enough defense to produce a mistake or two from Hanie.  That should, at a minimum, make this a field goal game.

Chicago 17, Seattle 16

INDIANAPOLIS (+6.5):   The Colts looked awful against the Ravens last week (though I suppose, they still did cover).  Nonetheless, the Titans have been an inconsistent team, with an inconsistent running game, and at this point, dimming playoff hopes.  I’ve been burned repeatedly with Indy this season…why not just watch the burn scar over…

Tennessee 20, Indianapolis 17

Green Bay (-13):  Until proven otherwise. Greg Jennings is a legitimate loss, but frankly, Aaron Rodgers can probably throw most able-bodied young men open on a football field.  The Packers have plenty of targets to spread the wealth, and I have never once felt optimistic about the return of Kyle Orton.  The Packers won’t exactly name their own score in Arrowhead as they did last weekend, but then again, I doubt the Chiefs will do much scoring.

Green Bay 34, Kansas City 16

Cincinnati (-7):  The Rams are awful, and today, will be playing without Sam Bradford.  Of course, given his previous performances, that loss seems somewhat diminished.  Steven Jackson will continue to toil in purgatory, with no opportunity to showcase his talents for a team with which they would matter.  Meanwhile, the Bengals are gunning for Dalton’s first playoff appearance. 

Cincinnati 20, St. Louis 10

New Orleans (-9):  Christian Ponder is not healthy.  Adrian Peterson will probably not be fed then ball 40 times in his first game back from injury.  Minnesota’s secondary is so ineffective that Tim Tebow scored 25 points against them.  Now they tangle with Drew Brees.  Even with the Saints obvious disparity in performance on the road, I cannot see the Vikings keeping up on the scoreboard.

New Orleans 31, Minnesota 13

NEW YORK GIANTS (-5.5):  While this seems exactly like the type of game the Giants would lose following their dramatic comeback against the Cowboys, unfortunately, to pick the Redskins, one must back Rex Grossman on the road.  That would be beyond my powers of justification.  A Giants win today eliminates the Eagles from the playoff hunt (an end which is long overdue).  They’ll get it here.

New York 27, Washington 20

Carolina (+6):  Cam Newton and T.J. Yates.  Given the almost indescribable disparity in talent between those two quarterbacks, to back the Texans, and lay a touchdown in doing so, one must posit that the offensive and defensive lines of the Texans are so dominant that any NFL-quarterback becomes a superbowl contender behind them.  The funny thing is, I am almost willing to make such a statement.  Almost, but not quite.

Houston 20, Carolina 17

Detroit (+1):  With an angry and well rested boy named Suh, the Lions defensive line should be formidable once again.  Kevin Smith, though he is rarely healthy, is slated to start this game, and should be a dangerous weapon against an Oakland defense that has struggled against the ground game all season long.  Detroit can smell the playoffs, even with their recent slide.  They’ll come out firing.

Detroit 27, Oakland 23

DENVER (+9):  Five years ago, there was a Monday Night Football game in which the Eagles played during the public struggle between Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens.  Bill Simmons, in his column picking the game simply listed his pick, then wrote “Mcnabb, T.O., McNabb, T.O., McNabb, T.O.” as the lines of a script read by John Madden, and the remaining commentators.  I have an urge to simply write “Brady, Tebow, Brady, Tebow, Brady, Tebow…Skip Bayless, Brady, Tebow, Brady, Tebow, Jesus, Brady, Tebow, Brady, Tebow…”  Tom Brady is what, 1-5 in Denver?  The Pats cannot stop anyone from putting some points on the board, even with the hooded-mastermind roaming the sidelines.  The “correct” decision, given the inexplicable sequence of charmed events favoring the Broncos, is to take the nine points.  Meanwhile, if Brady somehow finds himself injured during this game and the Broncos squeak out a victory, superstar players might eschew competition against this seemingly anointed wunderkind, fearing diving retribution about their bodies.  Can’t wait to watch this game.

New England 27, Denver 24

New York Jets (+3):  The Eagles beat a thoroughly broken Dolphins team.  Let’s avoid falling into the expectation that they will ever play up to the talent of their roster this season.  The Eagles don’t win at home either, finding countless ways to rip the hearts out of their fans.  Of course, as a means of spite, they could win a couple games to damage what might have otherwise been a valuable draft pick.  I should consider myself blessed that I can watch Tebow & Brady during this hour.

New York Jets 21, Philadelphia 20

Cleveland (+6.5):  I cannot see how John Skelton, facing a solid defense, deserves to lay a touchdown.  The Browns are a disaster, I get it, but how are their offensive woes so different from previous weeks?  They tend to keep games close, and I suppose they will do so here.  This may be the most unwatchable game of the week.

Arizona 20, Cleveland 16

SAN DIEGO (+1.5):  An east coast team travels to the west coast to face a disappointing, but somewhat frisky team following a relatively easy win.  Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.  While the Chargers have given anyone watching countless reasons to lack confidence, Flacco can instill the very same uncertainty in his backers.  This game will be decided by a field goal at the end.  If Rivers can hold on to the snaps on the final drive, I’ll bet it’s his team kicking it.

San Diego 24, Baltimore 23

Pittsburgh (+3):  San Francisco is not at this level.  Facing a team that entered this season believing it could win a superbowl, playing a conservative game of minimizing mistakes and allowing the defense to do the heavy lifting is insufficient.  Against the majority of the NFL, simply holding on the football, playing solid defense, and kicking field goals is probably a winning strategy.  Unfortunately, against the two teams on their schedule currently slated to make the playoffs, they are 0-2.

Pittsburgh 20, San Francisco 12

Picks, Week 14

Week 14, where the Eagles decide if they can avoid the dubious distinction of a four-win season, where the Monday night matchup is beyond dull, and one fantasy teams struggles to rise from the ashes once more. 

Picks:

CINCINNATI (-3):  T.J. Yates on the road, sans Andre Johnson, against a legitimate defense, in a game the Bengals absolutely must have.  I recognize that the Texans are formidable along both lines…but this rookie 3^rd stringer had one pick-six called back for a phantom defensive holding call and several other throws that looked seriously questionable.  Arian Foster is not Barry Sanders – not enough to change the outcome.

Cincinnati 20, Houston 13

Minnesota (+9.5):  Without the boy named Suh, I suspect Joe Webb and company will at least move the ball.  Detroit, having implemented a zero-tolerance policy on defense, will probably have forgotten how to hit legally.  Meanwhile, Mr. Suh has greater troubles of an automotive nature than those on the gridiron at the moment…tough times in the Motor City.  Seems like a race to the bottom between the floundering Lions and Bears.

Detroit 23, Minnesota 20

New Orleans (-3.5):  The resurgence of Chris Johnson notwithstanding, the Saints have demonstrated that their offense, when in synch, is nearly as horrifying as the undefeated bunch in Wisconsin.  While this spread seems just a bit too tempting given the massive dome advantage the Saints receive and this game’s locating in Tennessee, I just cannot see the Titans scoring the 24-27 points that would be required to cover this spread.

New Orleans 30, Tennessee 20

Philadelphia (+3):   Both of these teams are playing for pride and the honor of their maligned head coaches.  Sadly, last week, only one of these two teams seemed to display any sense of professionalism.  My suspicion is, following ten days to relax and feel the wrath of the Philadelphia media, this team demonstrates that it is not the bottom-dweller it appears to be and the newly formidable Dolphins are not about to recapture the glory of 1972.  Vick is back, Maclin is back, and I am fully prepared, following this game, to utter the phrase, “my four and nine Eagles.”

Philadelphia 24, Miami 20

Kansas City (+10.5):  The Jets have shown nothing offensively which would suggest that they deserve to lay 10.5 against anyone, even the floundering Chiefs.  Though Palko, whose name and and style of play seem eerily reminiscent of Shane Falco (Keanu Reeves’ character in “The Replacements”) is  uninspiring, the Chiefs D’ actually seems legit.  This game will stay somewhat close.

New York Jets 20, Kansas City 16

New England (-9):  Unlike the previous game, the Patriots absolutely warrant such a spread.  Since their loss to the Giants five weeks ago, the Patriots have surpassed 30 points four consecutive games (averaging 34).   I see no reason that will not continue.  Thus, I ask, are you comfortable betting on Rex Grossman and Roy Helu to score 25+?

New England 34, Washington 20

CAROLINA (+1.5):   Atlanta has outscored its opponents by only five points in total in its road games (and that includes its 24-point beating the Colts in Indy). In has outscored its opponents by twenty at home despite losses to the Packers & Saints.  This game is being played in Carolina…where perhaps the “lion” that is Cam Newton will get his other animals all riled up.  Truth be told, this is a game Cam should win.

Carolina 27, Atlanta 24

Tampa Bay (-3):  Welcome back Josh Freeman.  In case there were lingering questions regarding the Buccaneers’ decision-making at the quarterback position, last week’s results under Josh Johnson should assure the fans that the backup is certainly worse.  The Panthers could not stop the run against anyone…and yet they stuffed the box, held Blount to 19 yards on 11 carries, and the backup QB still could not pull it out.  They’ll be invigorated to be facing a quarterback in Blaine Gabbert who will not run for three scores like Cam did last week…

Tampa Bay 20, Jacksonville 13

Indianapolis (+16.5):  Dear lord.  I’ve been wrong with the Colts all season long.  Having thought the Patriots would utterly humiliate them, and seeing them scratch and claw, perhaps this game will be respectable.  Then again, perhaps the Ravens defense will simply overwhelm an overmatched Dan Orlovsky.  Mr. O, short for “Mr. 0-16,” will become his nickname as he has already quarterbacked a Midwestern town in a dome to an 0-16 record…and now he aspires to duplicate that feat.  Nonetheless…

Baltimore 24, Indianapolis 10

DENVER (-3.5):  Great.  I haven’t gotten a Tebow pick right since the Jets game, and that might be the only one I’ve gotten right.  I don’t hate Tim Tebow, but I certainly hate picking his games.  The Bears are playing without a functional quarterback, and now, without the running back that represented the sole offensive weapon that presented matchup difficulties for opposing defenses.  I think Tebow will struggle in Chicago against a formidable defense.  However, if he finds a way to score 17 points, that should do it…As a side note, given the offensive woes of Caleb and Barber, if the Broncos punt to Hester, John Fox should be drawn and quartered.

Denver 20, Chicago 13

San Francisco (-3.5):  Simply a better team.  Kevin Kolb & Beanie Wells < SF Defense, Q.E.D.  Don’t punt to Patrick Peterson, hand the ball off to Gore and throw an occasional play-action to Davis to Crabtree.  Seems straightforward enough, and I believe Harbaugh, though no tactical genius, can certainly reach a similarly manageable conclusion.

San Francisco 23, Arizona 14

GREEN BAY (-11.5):  Bring on that 16-0.  Theirs for the taking should they be so inclined, the Packers play a California team at the frozen tundra.  Expect some ugliness.   Meanwhile, while everyone discusses the otherworldly performance of Aaron Rodgers (and indeed, he has been extraordinary), anyone notice that this team ostensibly lacks a running game?  Not sure this matters, it just seems unbelievable.

Green Bay 38, Oakland 24

SAN DIEGO (-7):  Meaningless games in December, mediocre opponent from the east coast traveling to California, Norv Turner knowing damned well that he’s going to lose his job and thus, feels no pressure.  Yep, sounds like an opportunity to pad the statistics and delight fantasy owners everywhere, most of whom are probably already eliminated having been thoroughly disappointed by Rivers and company.

San Diego 31, Buffalo 20

DALLAS (-4.5):  Most entertaining game on television today to be sure.  If only my Eagles were still in the mix, and thus, provided any functional rooting interest…I genuinely wish both teams could lose. Nonetheless, the Giants are beginning their annual late-season free fall, and the Cowboys, with the return of Miles Austin, seem ready to begin to light up the scoreboard once again. 

Dallas 30, New York Giants 21

St. Louis (+10):  The Seahawks beat an utterly disengaged Eagles team.  This makes the Eagles a disgrace to professional sports, their fans, and their city.  However, it does not make them a truly talented football team.  Despite their rather inept opposition, the Seahawks are simply not the type of team that deserves to lay ten points.  Expect Bradford & Jackson to show up and provide a minimal amount of offense…just enough to cover.  In other news, this is among the worst Monday Night Football games in recent memory.

Seattle 20, St. Louis 13

Picks, Week 13

Week 13,

  The Eagles have already embarrassed their fans in a manner which equals many of our previous heartbreaking moments.  This time, the culprit was not mental gaffes, or inopportune errors, but rather, unabashed apathy.  Disgusting.  In any case, one of my fantasy teams is still worth following.   

Philadelphia (-3):

            There are so very many reasons to pick the Seahawks.  This is a short-week of preparation, which generally favors the home team.  Seattle’s home-field advantage is generally perceived to be quite substantial. Vick & Maclin are out, McCoy and Nnamdi are game-time decisions…Fine…but here’s what I know about an Eagles team under Andy Reid that I have watched for 12+ years: they build expectations and dash them.   This team has won at the Meadowlands as a touchdown underdog, dominated the Cowboys,  led the Falcons by 10 points in Atlanta before Vick left the game, and led the 49ers and Bears in the 4^th quarter.  They win when winning is not expected.  The Eagles crumble beneath the weight of expectations, and more specifically, their fans…they have only one home win this season (3-2 on the road).  The Eagles were 6-2 on the road last season as well.  They’ll win tonight, because we are certain they will not.

Philadelphia 23, Seattle 13

BUFFALO (-1):  These are two fairly evenly matched teams, albeit with perhaps a bit more firepower offensively on the part of the Bills, even with C.J. Spiller doing a very poor Fred Jackson impersonation.  Buffalo is not getting the requisite 3-points as a home team.  Chris Johnson’s recent resurgence notwithstanding, this team probably should have beaten the Jets last week (if Steve Johnson spent more time catching footballs and less time simulating busting a cap in his own leg) and is certainly good enough for this matchup today.

Buffalo 24, Tennessee 20

CHICAGO (-7):  Tyler Palko on the road…against a very hungry, opportunistic defense.  The Bears, had Caleb Hanie not thrown any of his three interceptions, probably beat the Raiders.  Playing on the road, against a decent team, in a hostile environment with a QB making his first start of the season led to a close loss…what happens when the Chiefs, with a scrub QB of their own come to town?

Chicago 24, Kansas City 13

Oakland (+3.5):  Way too damn tempting to grab that extra half a point.  I recognize that the Dolphins have been frisky lately, especially given their 10-day post-Thanksgiving mini-bye.  However, the Raiders, in my opinion, are the superior football team.  There is a reason that one team has 3 wins, and the other has 7. 

Oakland 20, Miami 17

MINNESOTA (+1):  “ ‘Till the roof comes off, ‘till the lights go out…”  Yes, that’s right, I’m quoting Eminem – a song entitled “ ‘Till my bones collapse.”  I’m betting against Tim Tebow.  The question of whether the NFL will begin to catch wise and shut down his offense is not an “if,” but a “when.”  In the 6 games he has started, his team has scored 112 points in regulation.  This includes a 38 point outburst in Oakland.  The remaining games (in regulation): 15, 10, 17, 13, 13.  If someone finds some points on offense, or makes one or two plays on defense/special teams, the Broncos are in trouble.  When they were getting a touchdown in each game, I might have felt differently.

Minnesota 17, Denver 13

NEW ENGLAND (-20.5):  Yes.  That’s right.  I’m laying three touchdowns.  Brady and his coach have no conscience.  The Colts have no pride or desire to fight for respectability.  They are throwing Dan Orlovsky into the fire.  Though overconfidence could prove to be an issue, I think the Patriots drop “eff you” TDs left and right, and re-assume the villainous role they so richly covet.

New England 42, Indianapolis 10.

PITTSBURGH (-6.5):  Division game, played in Pittsburgh, against a team the Steelers believe has gotten too close for comfort.  The Bengals are a solid football team, but walking into Pittsburgh in December is a task that I believe is simply too tall for Andy Dalton & co.  Admittedly, if our favorite Head & Shoulders pitchman sits, things change somewhat, but I just think the Steelers will be too much here.

Pittsburgh 27, Cincinnati 17

Carolina (+2.5):  Two thoroughly mediocre teams.  Cam is still hungry for every win, trying to amass a respectable record in his rookie season.  Meanwhile, the Bucs are free-falling “out into nothing…”  and like Tom Petty’s protagonist, will break the hearts of those who believe in them.  This game is likely to be a mess…two teams that cannot stop the run in a meaningless divisional undercard.  I’ll take the points and cross my fingers.

Carolina 23, Tampa Bay 21

NY Jets (-1.5):  The Jets are disappointing, but they are still 6-5, with wildcard aspirations.  They have an average quarterback, an average offense, and a slightly above average defense.  That does not sound like a superbowl contender as their coach so frequently espouses.  However, it does sound better than the Redskins.

NY Jets 20, Washington 16

Atlanta (-1): I understand that the Texans play solid defense and run the football effectively.  They are now rolling out their 3^rd string quarterback.  Without any other information, I must presume he is less than or equal to Matt Leinart (who ain’t Joe Montana) in talent.  Thus, while I do think the Texans can simply dominate bad teams at the line of scrimmage and render their QB deficiencies irrelevant, I think the Falcons will absolutely be too much.  The Falcons will get their 24 points.  I don’t think the Texans can keep up.

Atlanta 24, Houston 17

CLEVELAND (+7):  This is the frisky, bad team of Bill Simmons fame.  While their offense leaves much to be desired, and will likely suffer at the hands of the Ravens, their defense is absolutely legitimate.  Given that this game is in Cleveland, and Baltimore often plays down to their opposition, I suspect this is an ugly game that is far closer than Ravens fans would suspect and/or desire.

Baltimore 16, Cleveland 13.

Green Bay (-6.5):  The game of the week!  Everyone seems to believe the Giants possess the pass rush to foil Rodgers and break this undefeated season.  I believe that to be wishful thinking.  This team struggled to stop Alex Smith three weeks ago, lost to the Eagles at the Meadowlands, then allowed 7 touchdowns to Drew Brees et al.  Rodgers is going to get his – the only question is whether Eli can keep up.  I say no…and Rodgers has been waiting for 10 days.

Green Bay 34, New York 24

Dallas (-4.5):  Let not that slightly underwhelming performance on Thanksgiving day sway you.  This team is going to score against the Cardinals, and Kevin Kolb is not going to provide an adequate response.  They too have had 10 days to prepare, and have every motivation to perform as they did not against the Dolphins.  This has the potential to get out of hand.

Dallas 31, Arizona 17

St. Louis (+13.5):  Amazingly, the Rams have already lost 5 games by two touchdowns or more.  This Sunday, they find themselves opposite a 9-2 division rival with a vicious defense and plenty to play for.  This, this pick is disconcerting – betting on a bad team to keep things close on the road.  Yet, the 49ers tend to play close games, preferring to grid teams down with Gore.  I suspect 13.5 is just a bit too high.

San Francisco 24, St. Louis 13

NEW ORLEANS (-9):  This team scores in bunches, the boy named Suh will be nowhere to be found, and Brees is threatening Marino’s pass records.  Seems like the Saints, when motivated, can light up the scoreboard on anyone, especially in the superdome.  Meanwhile, Calvin Johnson can only catch so many jump balls, and g-d knows who will be taking handoffs for the Lions.

New Orleans 38, Detroit 24

San Diego (-3):  One of the worst Monday Night Football games in recent memory, played between two teams suffering through utterly miserable seasons.  The Chargers, unlike the Jags, do actually possess a legitimate quarterback (or so I have thought).  The Chargers, unlike the Jags, had expectations of superbowl grandeur.  I don’t believe the Chargers will make it seven in a row.

San Diego 24, Jacksonville 17