Picks, Week 12

Week 12, where one of my fantasy teams plays dead-man-walking, and the other continues its clawing ascent into relevance.  As for my Eagles, Tom Brady and company are coming to town...and I tend to think Cinderella is soon to become the pumpkin I presume them to be.

Picks:

Green Bay (-6):

            If this game were not a Thanksgiving game, the spread would be a couple points higher.  Though the Lions are legitimate opposition, this is a team that just allowed 35 points to the Panthers.  If they want a shootout in a dome, I am confident that Aaron Rodgers will happily oblige.  I don’t see Matt Stafford keeping up.  Suh & company can come after Rodgers all they want…the ball won’t stay in Rodgers’ hands long enough to matter.

Green Bay 38, Detroit 31

DALLAS (-7):

            The Miami Dolphins have won a couple games against currently dysfunctional teams.  Traveling to Dallas on a short week to do battle against a team which has them outclassed from a talent standpoint is a different matter altogether.  I imagine Matt Moore will struggle to move the ball, and Romo makes enough plays to put the game out of reach.

Dallas 27, Miami 13

San Francisco (+3.5):

            On the one hand, this is a prime-time game where Alex Smith could absolutely remind us that he is, well, Alex Smith.  On the other hand, the 49ers have an elite defense playing against a team whose offense has been tremendously questionable of late.  I am willing to wager that Harbaugh does not allow Smith to make any risky throws downfield, content to punt the ball and play defense, hoping to play for field position.  This is essentially a wager on a game decided by a field goal…

San Francisco 19, Baltimore 17

ATLANTA (-9.5)

            Rookie quarterback, on the road in a dome with a significant home-field advantage, without the all-world running back for which other teams are forced to prepare…though the spread is significant, I suspect the Falcons will dominate this game.  This will provide some sense of whether Christian Ponder is a future NFL starter, or simply riding the coattails of a greater talent.

Atlanta 30, Minnesota 13

Cleveland (+7):

            Though I agree that Cincinnati is the superior team, both of these teams struggle offensively to put up points.  For this reason, I fully suspect that this game will be low-scoring… the typical divisional bloodbath.  Though less satisfying to root for an ugly game, in this case, I believe it to be the smart bet.

Cincinnati 16, Cleveland 13

TENNESSEE (-3):

            Neither of these teams is playing particularly well, but in the case of the Titans, they are facing an utterly dismal run defense, perhaps Chris Johnson demonstrates some scintilla of his previous talent.  The line suggests that this matchup is dead even – I suspect the Titans are the slightly superior team.

Tennessee 24, Tampa Bay 17

Carolina (-3.5):

            Firstly, I’ve been burned too many times expecting the Colts to show and play with some pride – they’ve shown no inclination to do so.  Secondly, Cam Newton needs this game.  The accolades and praise might fade after a poor performance against a team that is currently 0-10, especially if it leaves his own team 2-9.   He shows up here.

Carolina 23, Indianapolis 13

ST. LOUIS (-1):

            Unfortunately, living in the midwest, there is a possibility that without a Bears game at 1PM, this game will be televised…which would be an unforgivable offense, except for the fact that I suffered this same fate in Champaign the last time these two teams played.  This game will be horrific, and the home team finds a way to make one fewer error.

St. Louis 17, Arizona 13

Buffalo (+9.5):

            The Jets have shown nothing offensively to suggest they merit a spread of this magnitude.  Yes, the Bills have been dreadful of late, but something tells me that C.J. Spiller makes a play or two, Fitzpatrick makes one or two meaningful throws, and Mark Sanchez keeps this close.  Frankly, I would love to see the Jets lose this game.

NY Jets 20, Buffalo 13

Houston (-6):

            If Matt Schaub were playing in this game, the spread would be 10+ points.  The Texans have been dominating teams along both the offensive and defensive lines.  Though players will still be playing in this game.  Foster and Tate are two pro-bowl caliber running backs, both of whom I expect will see substantial work.  Leinart will get back Andre Johnson to ease his transition.  If he is at all competent, the Texans should handle their business.

Houston 24, Jacksonville 14

OAKLAND (-3):

            I might have taken this bet with Jay Cutler, even with the level at which the Bears have been playing, given their travel to the west coast and the friskier-than-ever Raiders.  Meanwhile, with  Caleb Hanie making his first start, much will be expected given the limited corps of wide receivers that Cutler had enhanced.  Forte will either earn every cent he wants to be paid, or this Bears offense will be utterly ineffective.

Oakland 24, Chicago 17

SEATTLE (-3):

            The Redskins stink.  Seattle wins games at home.  Mike Shanahan displays schizophrenic tendencies with his running backs.  This should be a sufficient characterization of what, like some of the other games on the docket today, could be a very ugly game.  I’ll wager that more points are scored as the result of turnovers and short fields in this game than via a traditional drive.

Seattle 23, Washington 17

New England (-3.5):

            Every time the Eagles win a game, the world seems to imagine that they are, once and for all, morphing into the dream team.  They aren’t.  They are still 4-6, with a backup quarterback at the helm.  Tom Brady is playing for the opposition, and the Eagles secondary is not particularly healthy.  I would love to be wrong…but seriously…only 3.5?

New England 34, Philadelphia 20

SAN DIEGO (-5.5):

            Let’s see if I understand the situation.  There is a serious divisional game for which the stakes are non-trivial, the home team is starting a pro-bowl quarterback, and the opposition is starting a quarterback, who might complete 6-8 passes today.  This sub-50% quarterback is supplemented by an aging running back and a receiving corps of no-names.  Fine, he’s 4-1.  One game was an epic 15-0 collapse (Miami), one was a meltdown involving a last-minute prevent drive and an interception return accounting for 14 of 17 points (Jets), and one was against an offensively inept team playing with a quarterback backing up a guy who was a backup in college (Chiefs).  Fine Tebow, make me look like a moron again.

San Diego 24, Denver 14

Pittsburgh (-10.5):

            If the Steelers genuinely believe themselves to be a contender, replete with a championship caliber defense, then they should utterly dismantle the Chiefs feeble offense.  Meanwhile, Roethlisberger & Wallace should connect on one deep ball while the running game churns clock.  Considering that no one in the AFC has fewer than three losses, this team seems as fair a bet as any, especially if they aren’t playing the Ravens.

Pittsburgh 24, Kansas City 6

NEW ORLEANS (-7):

            While I expect the Giants to be looking to shake off their performance last week, and I know that the Giants tend to play up (or down) to their opponents, this is Monday Night, in a dome, against Drew Brees.  I simply cannot see Eli scoring enough points. 

New Orleans 34, New York 24

Picks, Week 11

Week 11. Where my Eagles, having lost their quarterback and all semblance of relevance this season, embarrass themselves at the Meadowlands, my fantasy football teams make their final playoff push, and Monday Night Football features a game with a 14.5 point spread.  

Picks:

DENVER (+6):

            On some level, Tim Tebow is utterly mystifying.  I would, on some level, wager that he’ll utterly implode against Revis & company, but of course, he might not even throw the ball 10 times…Basically, to lay the six points, one needs to wager on Mark Sanchez putting up a substantive number of points on the road.  I cannot do that comfortably.  Possessions will take longer given the structure of both offenses…lots of punts coming.   

NY Jets 17, Denver 14

CLEVELAND (-1):

            Two offensively inept teams, both of whom seem to demonstrate some ability to play defense.  I see no reason to feel confident in either of these teams, and thus, the home team ought to be laying the standard three points.  Expect ugliness, and one productive drive from the Browns.

Cleveland 16, Jacksonville 13

Carolina (+7):

            Cam Newton looked utterly miserable last week against the Titans.  Were his performance to be less ghastly, I presume captain cover would not be receiving a full touchdown in this game.  Lest we forget, Detroit did not exactly resemble a juggernaut last week either as the Bears thoroughly outclassed them.  Once again, Cam loses, but leads a late drive to make things close.

Detroit 24, Carolina 20

GREEN BAY (-14):

            The only home game they have not won by 21+ points was week one against the Saints.  This team, though still not all-time dominant, is certainly good enough to light up the scoreboard against the Bucs.  I’ll keep laying points with these guys until proven otherwise.

Green Bay 38, Tampa Bay 14

Buffalo (+3):

            When a 5-4 team visits a 2-7 team, one does not expect to receive a field goal for wagering upon the objectively superior team.  Miami has recently played more respectable football and the Bills are coming off of a butt-kicking at the hands of a very talented Cowboys team.  This line should be a Pk or Miami +1.

Buffalo 24, Miami 20

Oakland (+1):

            Minnesota’s secondary seemed utterly ineffective against the Packers last week (though I suppose that is not an altogether unusual result).  Now, though they return to the comfort of their dome, they will be without their best cornerback.  Both teams will attempt to run the ball…and both will find some success.  That said, I’ll take Palmer over Ponder at this point.

Oakland 20, Minnesota 17

Dallas (-7):

            This pick is hugely unsettling to me.  The Cowboys and Redskins play close games regardless of the relative talents of the two teams.  I am certain that with some effort, I could unearth a statistic which enumerates just how frequently this rivalry settles games by a touchdown or less.  That said, these two teams are moving in absolutely opposite directions.  One team is discovering the depths of its offensive and defensive talents while the other cannot even decide on a starting quarterback or running back.  Rare though it is, this matchup could get ugly.

Dallas 31, Washington 13

Cincinnati (+7):

            Both of these teams sport above average defenses and mediocre offenses.  Thus, at least as I see it, seven points is a lot.  Cincinnati has not lost a game by more than seven points all season.  Inevitably, locating such a statistic will spell my demise. That said, the Ravens seem to find inopportune moments to become utterly dull on offense…and this could be one of them.

Baltimore 16, Cincinnati 13

Seattle (+3):

            Seattle, though clearly not a contender, seems fully competent, and thus, should handle a division rival that has struggled all season long.  Though Seattle on the road is always an unsettling bet, in this case, the thought of laying points with the Rams seems too much to rationalize.

Seattle 19, St. Louis 17

Arizona (+10):

            San Francisco is clearly the superior team.  However, the 49ers grind teams down rather than annihilating them.  The 49ers have exactly two wins this season by more than ten points.  The Cardinals have exactly two losses this season by more than ten points.  Simply put, I see this game as being far too low-scoring to justify such a spread, especially with the number being 10.  Were this 8.5 or 9, I would probably go the other way.

San Francisco 23, Arizona 17

ATLANTA (-6.5):

            I’m not ready to declare Chris Johnson “back,” despite his ability to rack up some garbage-time statistics last week against the Panthers.  Meanwhile, Atlanta has the potential to overwhelm teams in their dome, especially given the frustration they are almost certainly feeling following their heartbreaking divisional loss to the Saints last weekend.  Once again, the line falls just short of a key number.  I might have been willing to take Tennessee +7.

Atlanta 27, Tennessee 20

CHICAGO (-3.5):

            The only team this season to win at Soldier field has been the Packers…and that game was hardly a blowout.  Meanwhile, the Chargers have been free-falling in a terrible manner.  While I certainly can see the argument for taking the points, especially given the “greater-than a field goal” spread, this is a Southern California team traveling to cold, windy Chicago…I don’t see the Chargers turning it around here.

Chicago 24, San Diego 17

NY GIANTS (-5.5):

            No Vick.  No Maclin.  The Eagles’ offensive line is mediocre, and Vince Young cannot escape like Michael Vick.  My only reservation lies in the fact that as frequently as Eagles teams break the hearts of their fans, they also find a way to play well in circumstances when expectations are tremendously low.  That said, the Giants are a good team, playing at home, against a rival they’d love to bury, in primetime.  Could be ugly.

New York Giants 31, Philadelphia 20

Kansas City (+14.5)
            Last week was the only game of the Patriots’ season in which they would have covered the spread of this game.  The Chiefs are playing with their backup quarterback on Monday Night Football, and ordinarily, this would absolutely be grounds for laying almost any number of points, but the fact is, the Patriots are very weak defensively.  Given the spread, and the late, garbage-time drives, to lay these points, one must essentially bet that the Pats will be up 34-10 as the game winds down…I doubt they allow only 10 points.

New England 34, Kansas City 24     

Picks, Week 10

Week 10.  Where the Colts have their best change to obtain their first win, my Eagles home to fade into obscurity, and both of my fantasy teams require wins to remain relevant.

Picks:
 

SAN DIEGO (-7):

            Thursday night games involve short weeks of preparation and are highly levered in favor of the home team.  Carson Palmer was “Tebowed” last week.  Phillip Rivers, in all his snap-taking and interception-throwing ineptitude, is still a considerably superior player.  Also, we are rapidly approaching the time of year at which the San Diego Chargers begin to flex the muscles their roster would suggest.  Or maybe that’s just Shawn Merriman’s PEDs.

San Diego 31, Oakland 17  (Not even close)

New Orleans (+1):

            I’m not yet sold on the Falcons, though I will concede that their dome is a significant edge.  However, it seems that edge has been well-priced into this line.  New Orleans would probably be a 3-4 point favorite on a neutral field, and the fact that they are receiving a point suggests the public will eager to take Atlanta.  It won’t be a Brees, but I imagine the Saints will ultimately prevail.

New Orleans 31, Atlanta 28

CINCINNATI (+3.5):

            Pittsburgh has simply not played like a team that deserves to lay 3.5 on the road against a 6-2 team.  The Bengals have lived off the fat of the land so to speak with wins over Cle, Jax, Indy, and Sea…and have been judged harshly for it.  The Steelers have wins over Ari, Jax, Indy, and Sea so clearly…oh wait..it’s essentially the same list.  These teams are fairly evenly matched…and one team is getting more than a field goal.

Pittsburgh 23, Cincinnati 21

CLEVELAND (-2.5):

            I’m all over the state of Ohio (quick, check my blood pressure, I’m feeling dizzy).  The Browns play defense.  They don’t do much else, but they play defense.  That should be sufficient against a Rams team that will struggle mightily to move the ball on the road.

Cleveland 20, St. Louis 16

DALLAS (-5.5):

            Buffalo owns a single road win – in week one against a Chiefs team that looked so dysfunctional that they were underdogs against the Colts thereafter.  The Cowboys, though they do, from time to time, look abysmal, have considerably more talent on both sides of the ball than the Bills.  Unless Jerry Jones decides to start calling plays (which isn’t, you know, altogether impossible), Dallas rolls.

Dallas 30, Buffalo 24

INDIANAPOLIS (+3):

            I have been wrong so very many times with the Colts.  Now, this team is starting down the specter of 0-16 in a very legitimate way.  Following this game, this team will host Cam Newton, followed by trips to Foxborough and Baltimore, home against Tennessee and Houston, and then finally, a trip to Jacksonville to end the season.  This is their opportunity to avoid what would essentially amount to a sign on their backs which reads “Peyton Manning is my sole means of seeming competitive.”

Indianapolis 19, Jacksonville 17

KANSAS CITY (-3):

            Dear lord, what is Tim Tebow?  A fantasy savant assured of 60+ yards rushing, 150+ yards passing, and either a rushing TD or a couple in the air?  An utterly incompetent, awkward-delivery, misplaced phenom for whom one must configure an NFL offense to resemble the college spread?  A polarizing religious figure so unfailingly appropriate and polite as to seem disingenuous by the impossibility of such kindness under criticism to be legitimate?  The only topic worthy of discussion in any game in which he plays?  I don’t know.  I’ll take the home team.

Kansas City 27, Denver 20

MIAMI (-4):

            This game demands that I do one of two things for which I would normally ask that someone viciously slap my face to return me to lucidity.  The first is to wager upon John Beck on the road, a backup quarterback leading a team which has not won a game in six weeks and seemed rudderless over that span.  The second is to lay points with a 1-7 team with a lame duck coach and the repeatedly demonstrated ability to seize defeat from the jaws of victory.  I’m sickened at the prospect of either wager.

Miami 17, Washington 13

Arizona (+14):

            What have the Eagles done to warrant laying two touchdowns?  They are what their record says they are, a 3-5 team with glimpses of talent lodged amidst the pugnacious odor of underachievement.  The Eagles, were they truly a dream team, would, with vicious, righteous, self-determined rage, lay waste to an inferior team for their home crowd.  They would embarrass an overmatched John Skelton and blanket Larry Fitzgerald with any of their shiny baubles, their three pro-bowl cornerbacks…but they are not.

Philadelphia 27, Arizona 17 

TAMPA BAY (+3.5):

            This is a 4-4 team with losses against Detroit, San Fran, Chicago, and New Orleans.  They have also beaten the Saints and Falcons.  They are being given 3.5 points, at home, against a team that, while 6-3, has wins against Indy, Miami, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Cleveland.  Once again, two evenly matched teams.  I am happy to have more than a FG on my wager.

Tampa Bay 27, Houston 24

CAROLINA (-3.5):

            Chris Johnson’s performance last week might have been viewed as disappointing if not for the prism through which it was viewed, considerably more galling displays of ineptitude.  I’ll take Cam and company.  Neither team is great, but one at least seems to put points on the board with some consistency.

Carolina 23, Tennessee 16

SEATTLE (+6.5):

            After Baltimore’s first victory over Pittsburgh, the ensuing week, they traveled to Tennessee and lost by 13.  The second victory, as exhilarating as it was, was a bloodbath from which their ought to be an inevitable letdown.  Combine this with the inexplicable edge from Seattle’s home-field and I’ll take 6.5.

Seattle 19, Baltimore 17

Detroit (+2.5):

            Another letdown game.  Chicago has a short week of preparation following their win over the Eagles on Monday night.  Now they face a defensive front seven capable of harassing Cutler and an offense which should move the ball somewhat.  This pick could go either way, but I’ll take the Lions.

Detroit 24, Chicago 23

NY Giants (+3.5):

            Not sold on the 49ers.  This is a team that was losing by 20 points to my Eagles at one point.  I fully expect that the Giants will move the ball through the air against an unspectacular secondary, even without Nicks.  I fully expect the Giants’ front seven to give Alex Smith plenty of reason to turn back into a pumpkin.  This is when the 49ers begin their return to earth.

NY Giants 24, San Francisco 20

New England (+1.5):

            They won the first matchup by 9 points.  The move from Foxborough to Jersey is not worth 10.5 points.  Despite the rather putrid secondary, Mark Sanchez is mediocre, Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, and this will be another opportunity for Rex Ryan to ask for a rematch in January.

New England 23, NY Jets 20

GREEN BAY (-13):

            Christian Ponder, making his 3^rd start, at Lambeau, on Monday Night football.  The Packers, while perhaps not as all-time dominant as they are perceived to be, are, on this night, two touchdowns better than their opposition.  Expect fireworks for the rowdy cheeseheads.

Green Bay 34, Minnesota 17

Picks, Week 9

Week 9, where my Eagles attempt to become a .500 team for the first time since week 2, and my fantasy football teams make their last ditch run at a playoff berth.

Week 9 Picks:

BUFFALO (-2.5):

            I’m a believer.  The season is slowly revealing meaningful and meaningless results.  A Jets win over the Chargers seemed impressive…until the Chargers demonstrated their own ineptitude last Monday night.  Their remaining wins are a Dallas choke in week 1, Jacksonville, and the Raiders.  Meanwhile, the Bills have some very impressive credentials.  I believe they’ll move the ball enough.

Buffalo 23, NY Jets 17

DALLAS (-11):

            The Seahawks stink in general, and stink with an especially pugnacious odor on the road.  Dallas will be furious following their shellacking in Philly last Sunday, Seattle will be, well, Seattle.  That should be sufficient.

Dallas 31, Seattle 13

INDIANAPOLIS (+6.5):

            When this was a 7-point spread, this was not a difficult decision.  Regardless of the ineptitude of the Colts, the Falcons are another team with an enormous disparity between home and away performances laying a touchdown in someone else’s dome.  Of course, the Colts have shown nothing to suggest they are a competitive football team.  On the other hand, the books, with a line like this, seem like they’re dying to get more money on the dirty birds.  I’ll go the other way.

Atlanta 23, Indianapolis 19

KANSAS CITY (-4):

            The Chargers are a team in disarray.  The Dolphins are notably worse.  If the Chiefs can essentially play the Chargers to a draw, they must be four points better than the Dolphins at Arrowhead.  The Dolphins have played their last two games close, but one was against an utterly inept Tebow (and they still lost), and the other was against a Giants team which often plays down to its opponent (and they still lost).

Kansas City 24, Miami 13

NEW ORLEANS (-9):

            Something feels unsettling about laying 9 points on a team which just provided the Rams their first win of the season last Sunday.  However, without that hiccup, this line would probably be 13 points.  Back in the superdome, I expect Brees and company to avoid turning into a pumpkin as they did last Halloween weekend.

New Orleans 38, Tampa Bay 24

San Francisco (-4):

            I believe in the 49ers’ defense.  John Beck was utterly worthless against the Bills…whose defense is hardly of the caliber of the one he will face today.  Shanahan is probably wondering if John Elway would surrender his post in Denver to take the field a few more times.  Perhaps the “ultimate leader” needs some alteration to his title.

San Francisco 24, Washington 19

HOUSTON (-10.5):

            Ick.   Another heavy chalk wager.  On some level, this is not even a bet on the capacity of the Texans offense to light up the scoreboard.  Rather, given the utter devastation that is the Browns current offense, I cannot imagine them scoring enough points to matter in a game on the road against a decent team.  The Browns have scored 20 points exactly once this season…in week 2…against the Colts.  Assuming they score 14-17 points tops, are you comfortable assuming the Texans will not score 27?  I’m not.

Houston 28, Cleveland 14

Cincinnati (+1.5):

            So the Titans seem like a tremendously flawed team in that they cannot run the football (32^nd), nor stop the run (27^th).  When they face teams capable of exploiting this, either by running the ball down their throats (Houston, week 7, 222-53 edge in rushing yards), or by at least shutting down their running game (Pittsburgh, week 6, 174-66 edge in rushing yards), the Titans get waxed.  Even in their week one loss to Jacksonville, they were outgained 163-43.  The Bengals are 2^nd against the run…I just don’t see the Titans moving the ball much.

Cincinnati 20, Tennessee 17

OAKLAND (-7):

            So the choices are…behind door #1, a quarterback who just came off the couch two weeks ago, and after three days of preparation, threw three picks and seemed completely lost.  Behind door #2, a quarterback lacking all discernable quarterbacking skills apart from toughness and leadership.  Carson Palmer might, with two weeks to prepare, resemble an NFL quarterback.  Tebow has already shown us that he does not.

Oakland 24, Denver 10

NY Giants (+9):

            Just as the Giants play down to their opposition (Miami, Seattle, Washington, Arizona), they often play up to it as well.  A fearsome pass rush should keep Brady from laying waste to a questionable secondary and given that the Pats struggle to stop anyone, I figure the Giants can, at a minimum, keep this close.

New England 30, NY Giants 24

ARIZONA (-2.5):

            Here comes the letdown for the Rams, all atwitter over their upset of the Saints.  The Cardinals are starting a backup QB, but the punch line to this joke is that he’s hardly much worse than the starter.  The Rams will get a lot of action from the betting public in this one I imagine.  Thus, I’ll go the other way, and assume home-field is worth the proverbial field goal here.

Arizona 20, St. Louis 17

Green Bay (-5.5):

            Football outsiders, by way of ESPN, put forward two articles about overrated teams.  The two teams mentioned were the Packers and the Chargers.  However, according to this article the Packers are truly a very good team masquerading as one of the best teams of all-time.  The Chargers are a thoroughly mediocre team masquerading as a good one.  Until proven otherwise, I’ll take the Pack.

Green Bay 34, San Diego 23

PITTSBURGH (-3):

            There are plenty of reasons to distrust this pick.  Firstly, the Ravens absolutely annihilated this team in week 1.  Secondly, this is the consensus choice of the public I would imagine, which always concerns me.  All that said, the Steelers, in Pittsburgh, against a rival detested more in that territory than Osama Bin Laden would have been, should have enough fervor to rattle Flacco.

Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 16   

Chicago (+9):

            While I do agree that the Eagles should be favored in this game, nine points is a ton, especially for a team, that despite recent performances, is still 3-4, and prone to turnovers and getting gashed up the middle.  I hope they’ve turned the corner for good, but this line seems to be an overreaction to the Sunday night game last week.

Philadelphia 27, Chicago 24