Pages

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Picks, Divisional Saturday

It's the most wonderful time of the year...Unfortunately, I am missing my little cousin's Bat Mitzvah in Pittsburgh due to poorly-timed Midwestern snowstorms.  My only consolation is the football that I will be able to watch.

Picks:


New Orleans (-3.5):  This is the most unpleasant spread for the gambler.  Had I seen a -3, I lay the points and rest easy.  Should the spread have been -4, I probably swing in the other direction, knowing I’m still pushing a 27-23, 24-20, or 21-17 loss.   In any case, what ultimately makes this pick for me is the notion of Alex Smith playing his first playoff game, Jim Harbaugh (despite his considerable success this season) coaching his first playoff game, and the notion that I cannot see Sean Peyton’s offense stymied entirely.  Though the Saints have absolutely been a different team on the road this season, I refer to the wisdom of Ron Jaworski on PTI yesterday as he summarized this football game by noting that the Saints, in the red zone, score touchdowns.  The 49ers kick field goals.  I do think this is going to be a reasonably close game, but I am confident Brees & co. will muster a meaningful 4th quarter drive for a score.  That will be enough to cover.

New Orleans 27, San Francisco 23

NEW ENGLAND (-13.5):  I have been wrong on Tim Tebow more consistently this season than any other quarterback, though I do tend to think Pittsburgh simplified his reads more last weekend than any offensive coordinator ever could have.  Man-to-man, press-coverage, no safety?  So, basically, this is like standing on the playground with one receiver on either side, and chucking it up to the kid who gets farther away from his guy?  Stare down the faster kid and then lob one up?  But I digress.  The problem in this game, in addition to the anointed one playing in Foxborough in January (which once meant something), last time these teams met, the Pats hung 40 on the Broncos.  I see no reason to expect any other outcome.  Thus, not only must the anointed one avoid mistakes and maintain possession for extended periods of time, but must somehow also score 25+.  I doubt he does…and brace for my error.

New England 38, Denver 20 

No comments:

Post a Comment