BALTIMORE (-9):
The question becomes, do I think T.J. Yates can walk into Baltimore in
January and play respectably. Nine
points seems like quite a bit for a game whose total is listed at 36.5, but I
just can’t see my way clear to backing a third string quarterback on the road
against a team that did not lose at home this season and is itching for a trip
to the superbowl. Last week against
Cincy, Houston was buoyed by 35 carries on the ground for 188 yards and two
scores. Andy Dalton threw three
interceptions, one of which was returned for six. I cannot imagine Baltimore providing such
generous advantages for the rookie quarterback in a hostile environment. While I can numerous sound numerical
arguments in favor of taking the nine points, not only would this violate the
famed Bill Simmons Manifesto (never take an underdog on the road unless you
think they can win), but it would demand backing a rookie QB on the road with
(albeit aging) Ray Lewis and Ed Reed staring him down. …No thanks.
Baltimore 27, Houston 13
GREEN BAY (-7.5):
Firstly, this seems like the proverbial case of “when everyone is doing
one thing, do the other.” The Giants
dominated a Falcons team with a QB who has never won a playoff game on a team
that basically functions well indoors exclusively. The betting public as a
whole is rallying around this story of the Giants recapturing the magic of
2007, the parallels between this game and their superbowl win over the juggernaut
Patriots (who they had also lost to 38-35 in a regular season meeting), and the
chic revelation that Eli Manning is an elite quarterback. Ahem.
This season, Eli went for 29 TDs and 16 INTs. Mr. Discount Double-Check went for 49 &
6. Any idea how many times this season the
Packers won by fewer than 8 points at home?
The answer is none. The Giants
play their best when no one believes in them, when the world expects a
collapse, case in point, their win against New England (which, btw, was their
sole win against a playoff team).
However, when the world expects a top-level performance, they have come
up small (see: two losses to Washington, home against Seattle). The world is expecting the Giants to upset a
15-1 team in Lambeau. The Packers
outscored their opponents by over 200 points this season, despite having
virtually no motivation for the final two weeks. The Giants did not outscore their opponents this season. I would love to take the sexy underdog – but I
just don’t see it happening.
Green Bay 38, New York 24
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