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Sunday, January 8, 2012

Picks, Wildcard Sunday


Two favorites covered yesterday, why not today?

NY GIANTS (-3):  This game bothers me considerably, given the Giants’ penchant for playing poorly when favored, the letdown factor following their dismantling of the Cowboys season. And Eli’s occasional stinker for which we may be due.  However, the Falcons have not beaten a single playoff team this season and derive a considerable advantage of playing in their dome.  The Falcons blow out bad teams in Atlanta, but struggle to demonstrate that elite level performance elsewhere.  If Eli avoids turnovers, the Giants win this football game – and I am venturing to say that will occur.   Not thrilled about this pick, though.
New York 28, Atlanta 24

PITTSBURGH (-9):  This game is the most unpleasant on the board, by a considerable margin.  The Steelers are missing their starting running back and their center, their quarterback is hobbled, their defense is banged up, and their playing in Denver, where the homefield advantage is considerable.  I’d feel a lot better if this line was -7…but it ain’t.  Tim Tebow has only faced two teams that qualified for the playoffs, and lost by 18 & 35 points.  The bottom line is this, I believe the Steelers will manage two or three scoring drives offensively (let’s say 10-17 points), get one turnover in Denver territory (3-7), and have one decent punt return / poor punt from deep in Broncos territory set up another FG (3 points).  Doing the math here, that’s 16-27 points for the Steelers…which seems appropriate.  Now, do you want to bet the Broncos will be above the 7-16 point range with Tebow against a top-flight defense?   I do not.
Pittsburgh 20, Denver 10

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