Picks, Week 9

Week 9, where my Eagles attempt to become a .500 team for the first time since week 2, and my fantasy football teams make their last ditch run at a playoff berth.

Week 9 Picks:

BUFFALO (-2.5):

            I’m a believer.  The season is slowly revealing meaningful and meaningless results.  A Jets win over the Chargers seemed impressive…until the Chargers demonstrated their own ineptitude last Monday night.  Their remaining wins are a Dallas choke in week 1, Jacksonville, and the Raiders.  Meanwhile, the Bills have some very impressive credentials.  I believe they’ll move the ball enough.

Buffalo 23, NY Jets 17

DALLAS (-11):

            The Seahawks stink in general, and stink with an especially pugnacious odor on the road.  Dallas will be furious following their shellacking in Philly last Sunday, Seattle will be, well, Seattle.  That should be sufficient.

Dallas 31, Seattle 13

INDIANAPOLIS (+6.5):

            When this was a 7-point spread, this was not a difficult decision.  Regardless of the ineptitude of the Colts, the Falcons are another team with an enormous disparity between home and away performances laying a touchdown in someone else’s dome.  Of course, the Colts have shown nothing to suggest they are a competitive football team.  On the other hand, the books, with a line like this, seem like they’re dying to get more money on the dirty birds.  I’ll go the other way.

Atlanta 23, Indianapolis 19

KANSAS CITY (-4):

            The Chargers are a team in disarray.  The Dolphins are notably worse.  If the Chiefs can essentially play the Chargers to a draw, they must be four points better than the Dolphins at Arrowhead.  The Dolphins have played their last two games close, but one was against an utterly inept Tebow (and they still lost), and the other was against a Giants team which often plays down to its opponent (and they still lost).

Kansas City 24, Miami 13

NEW ORLEANS (-9):

            Something feels unsettling about laying 9 points on a team which just provided the Rams their first win of the season last Sunday.  However, without that hiccup, this line would probably be 13 points.  Back in the superdome, I expect Brees and company to avoid turning into a pumpkin as they did last Halloween weekend.

New Orleans 38, Tampa Bay 24

San Francisco (-4):

            I believe in the 49ers’ defense.  John Beck was utterly worthless against the Bills…whose defense is hardly of the caliber of the one he will face today.  Shanahan is probably wondering if John Elway would surrender his post in Denver to take the field a few more times.  Perhaps the “ultimate leader” needs some alteration to his title.

San Francisco 24, Washington 19

HOUSTON (-10.5):

            Ick.   Another heavy chalk wager.  On some level, this is not even a bet on the capacity of the Texans offense to light up the scoreboard.  Rather, given the utter devastation that is the Browns current offense, I cannot imagine them scoring enough points to matter in a game on the road against a decent team.  The Browns have scored 20 points exactly once this season…in week 2…against the Colts.  Assuming they score 14-17 points tops, are you comfortable assuming the Texans will not score 27?  I’m not.

Houston 28, Cleveland 14

Cincinnati (+1.5):

            So the Titans seem like a tremendously flawed team in that they cannot run the football (32^nd), nor stop the run (27^th).  When they face teams capable of exploiting this, either by running the ball down their throats (Houston, week 7, 222-53 edge in rushing yards), or by at least shutting down their running game (Pittsburgh, week 6, 174-66 edge in rushing yards), the Titans get waxed.  Even in their week one loss to Jacksonville, they were outgained 163-43.  The Bengals are 2^nd against the run…I just don’t see the Titans moving the ball much.

Cincinnati 20, Tennessee 17

OAKLAND (-7):

            So the choices are…behind door #1, a quarterback who just came off the couch two weeks ago, and after three days of preparation, threw three picks and seemed completely lost.  Behind door #2, a quarterback lacking all discernable quarterbacking skills apart from toughness and leadership.  Carson Palmer might, with two weeks to prepare, resemble an NFL quarterback.  Tebow has already shown us that he does not.

Oakland 24, Denver 10

NY Giants (+9):

            Just as the Giants play down to their opposition (Miami, Seattle, Washington, Arizona), they often play up to it as well.  A fearsome pass rush should keep Brady from laying waste to a questionable secondary and given that the Pats struggle to stop anyone, I figure the Giants can, at a minimum, keep this close.

New England 30, NY Giants 24

ARIZONA (-2.5):

            Here comes the letdown for the Rams, all atwitter over their upset of the Saints.  The Cardinals are starting a backup QB, but the punch line to this joke is that he’s hardly much worse than the starter.  The Rams will get a lot of action from the betting public in this one I imagine.  Thus, I’ll go the other way, and assume home-field is worth the proverbial field goal here.

Arizona 20, St. Louis 17

Green Bay (-5.5):

            Football outsiders, by way of ESPN, put forward two articles about overrated teams.  The two teams mentioned were the Packers and the Chargers.  However, according to this article the Packers are truly a very good team masquerading as one of the best teams of all-time.  The Chargers are a thoroughly mediocre team masquerading as a good one.  Until proven otherwise, I’ll take the Pack.

Green Bay 34, San Diego 23

PITTSBURGH (-3):

            There are plenty of reasons to distrust this pick.  Firstly, the Ravens absolutely annihilated this team in week 1.  Secondly, this is the consensus choice of the public I would imagine, which always concerns me.  All that said, the Steelers, in Pittsburgh, against a rival detested more in that territory than Osama Bin Laden would have been, should have enough fervor to rattle Flacco.

Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 16   

Chicago (+9):

            While I do agree that the Eagles should be favored in this game, nine points is a ton, especially for a team, that despite recent performances, is still 3-4, and prone to turnovers and getting gashed up the middle.  I hope they’ve turned the corner for good, but this line seems to be an overreaction to the Sunday night game last week.

Philadelphia 27, Chicago 24