Picks, Week 12

Week 12, where one of my fantasy teams plays dead-man-walking, and the other continues its clawing ascent into relevance.  As for my Eagles, Tom Brady and company are coming to town...and I tend to think Cinderella is soon to become the pumpkin I presume them to be.

Picks:

Green Bay (-6):

            If this game were not a Thanksgiving game, the spread would be a couple points higher.  Though the Lions are legitimate opposition, this is a team that just allowed 35 points to the Panthers.  If they want a shootout in a dome, I am confident that Aaron Rodgers will happily oblige.  I don’t see Matt Stafford keeping up.  Suh & company can come after Rodgers all they want…the ball won’t stay in Rodgers’ hands long enough to matter.

Green Bay 38, Detroit 31

DALLAS (-7):

            The Miami Dolphins have won a couple games against currently dysfunctional teams.  Traveling to Dallas on a short week to do battle against a team which has them outclassed from a talent standpoint is a different matter altogether.  I imagine Matt Moore will struggle to move the ball, and Romo makes enough plays to put the game out of reach.

Dallas 27, Miami 13

San Francisco (+3.5):

            On the one hand, this is a prime-time game where Alex Smith could absolutely remind us that he is, well, Alex Smith.  On the other hand, the 49ers have an elite defense playing against a team whose offense has been tremendously questionable of late.  I am willing to wager that Harbaugh does not allow Smith to make any risky throws downfield, content to punt the ball and play defense, hoping to play for field position.  This is essentially a wager on a game decided by a field goal…

San Francisco 19, Baltimore 17

ATLANTA (-9.5)

            Rookie quarterback, on the road in a dome with a significant home-field advantage, without the all-world running back for which other teams are forced to prepare…though the spread is significant, I suspect the Falcons will dominate this game.  This will provide some sense of whether Christian Ponder is a future NFL starter, or simply riding the coattails of a greater talent.

Atlanta 30, Minnesota 13

Cleveland (+7):

            Though I agree that Cincinnati is the superior team, both of these teams struggle offensively to put up points.  For this reason, I fully suspect that this game will be low-scoring… the typical divisional bloodbath.  Though less satisfying to root for an ugly game, in this case, I believe it to be the smart bet.

Cincinnati 16, Cleveland 13

TENNESSEE (-3):

            Neither of these teams is playing particularly well, but in the case of the Titans, they are facing an utterly dismal run defense, perhaps Chris Johnson demonstrates some scintilla of his previous talent.  The line suggests that this matchup is dead even – I suspect the Titans are the slightly superior team.

Tennessee 24, Tampa Bay 17

Carolina (-3.5):

            Firstly, I’ve been burned too many times expecting the Colts to show and play with some pride – they’ve shown no inclination to do so.  Secondly, Cam Newton needs this game.  The accolades and praise might fade after a poor performance against a team that is currently 0-10, especially if it leaves his own team 2-9.   He shows up here.

Carolina 23, Indianapolis 13

ST. LOUIS (-1):

            Unfortunately, living in the midwest, there is a possibility that without a Bears game at 1PM, this game will be televised…which would be an unforgivable offense, except for the fact that I suffered this same fate in Champaign the last time these two teams played.  This game will be horrific, and the home team finds a way to make one fewer error.

St. Louis 17, Arizona 13

Buffalo (+9.5):

            The Jets have shown nothing offensively to suggest they merit a spread of this magnitude.  Yes, the Bills have been dreadful of late, but something tells me that C.J. Spiller makes a play or two, Fitzpatrick makes one or two meaningful throws, and Mark Sanchez keeps this close.  Frankly, I would love to see the Jets lose this game.

NY Jets 20, Buffalo 13

Houston (-6):

            If Matt Schaub were playing in this game, the spread would be 10+ points.  The Texans have been dominating teams along both the offensive and defensive lines.  Though players will still be playing in this game.  Foster and Tate are two pro-bowl caliber running backs, both of whom I expect will see substantial work.  Leinart will get back Andre Johnson to ease his transition.  If he is at all competent, the Texans should handle their business.

Houston 24, Jacksonville 14

OAKLAND (-3):

            I might have taken this bet with Jay Cutler, even with the level at which the Bears have been playing, given their travel to the west coast and the friskier-than-ever Raiders.  Meanwhile, with  Caleb Hanie making his first start, much will be expected given the limited corps of wide receivers that Cutler had enhanced.  Forte will either earn every cent he wants to be paid, or this Bears offense will be utterly ineffective.

Oakland 24, Chicago 17

SEATTLE (-3):

            The Redskins stink.  Seattle wins games at home.  Mike Shanahan displays schizophrenic tendencies with his running backs.  This should be a sufficient characterization of what, like some of the other games on the docket today, could be a very ugly game.  I’ll wager that more points are scored as the result of turnovers and short fields in this game than via a traditional drive.

Seattle 23, Washington 17

New England (-3.5):

            Every time the Eagles win a game, the world seems to imagine that they are, once and for all, morphing into the dream team.  They aren’t.  They are still 4-6, with a backup quarterback at the helm.  Tom Brady is playing for the opposition, and the Eagles secondary is not particularly healthy.  I would love to be wrong…but seriously…only 3.5?

New England 34, Philadelphia 20

SAN DIEGO (-5.5):

            Let’s see if I understand the situation.  There is a serious divisional game for which the stakes are non-trivial, the home team is starting a pro-bowl quarterback, and the opposition is starting a quarterback, who might complete 6-8 passes today.  This sub-50% quarterback is supplemented by an aging running back and a receiving corps of no-names.  Fine, he’s 4-1.  One game was an epic 15-0 collapse (Miami), one was a meltdown involving a last-minute prevent drive and an interception return accounting for 14 of 17 points (Jets), and one was against an offensively inept team playing with a quarterback backing up a guy who was a backup in college (Chiefs).  Fine Tebow, make me look like a moron again.

San Diego 24, Denver 14

Pittsburgh (-10.5):

            If the Steelers genuinely believe themselves to be a contender, replete with a championship caliber defense, then they should utterly dismantle the Chiefs feeble offense.  Meanwhile, Roethlisberger & Wallace should connect on one deep ball while the running game churns clock.  Considering that no one in the AFC has fewer than three losses, this team seems as fair a bet as any, especially if they aren’t playing the Ravens.

Pittsburgh 24, Kansas City 6

NEW ORLEANS (-7):

            While I expect the Giants to be looking to shake off their performance last week, and I know that the Giants tend to play up (or down) to their opponents, this is Monday Night, in a dome, against Drew Brees.  I simply cannot see Eli scoring enough points. 

New Orleans 34, New York 24