Picks, Week 11

Week 11. Where my Eagles, having lost their quarterback and all semblance of relevance this season, embarrass themselves at the Meadowlands, my fantasy football teams make their final playoff push, and Monday Night Football features a game with a 14.5 point spread.  

Picks:

DENVER (+6):

            On some level, Tim Tebow is utterly mystifying.  I would, on some level, wager that he’ll utterly implode against Revis & company, but of course, he might not even throw the ball 10 times…Basically, to lay the six points, one needs to wager on Mark Sanchez putting up a substantive number of points on the road.  I cannot do that comfortably.  Possessions will take longer given the structure of both offenses…lots of punts coming.   

NY Jets 17, Denver 14

CLEVELAND (-1):

            Two offensively inept teams, both of whom seem to demonstrate some ability to play defense.  I see no reason to feel confident in either of these teams, and thus, the home team ought to be laying the standard three points.  Expect ugliness, and one productive drive from the Browns.

Cleveland 16, Jacksonville 13

Carolina (+7):

            Cam Newton looked utterly miserable last week against the Titans.  Were his performance to be less ghastly, I presume captain cover would not be receiving a full touchdown in this game.  Lest we forget, Detroit did not exactly resemble a juggernaut last week either as the Bears thoroughly outclassed them.  Once again, Cam loses, but leads a late drive to make things close.

Detroit 24, Carolina 20

GREEN BAY (-14):

            The only home game they have not won by 21+ points was week one against the Saints.  This team, though still not all-time dominant, is certainly good enough to light up the scoreboard against the Bucs.  I’ll keep laying points with these guys until proven otherwise.

Green Bay 38, Tampa Bay 14

Buffalo (+3):

            When a 5-4 team visits a 2-7 team, one does not expect to receive a field goal for wagering upon the objectively superior team.  Miami has recently played more respectable football and the Bills are coming off of a butt-kicking at the hands of a very talented Cowboys team.  This line should be a Pk or Miami +1.

Buffalo 24, Miami 20

Oakland (+1):

            Minnesota’s secondary seemed utterly ineffective against the Packers last week (though I suppose that is not an altogether unusual result).  Now, though they return to the comfort of their dome, they will be without their best cornerback.  Both teams will attempt to run the ball…and both will find some success.  That said, I’ll take Palmer over Ponder at this point.

Oakland 20, Minnesota 17

Dallas (-7):

            This pick is hugely unsettling to me.  The Cowboys and Redskins play close games regardless of the relative talents of the two teams.  I am certain that with some effort, I could unearth a statistic which enumerates just how frequently this rivalry settles games by a touchdown or less.  That said, these two teams are moving in absolutely opposite directions.  One team is discovering the depths of its offensive and defensive talents while the other cannot even decide on a starting quarterback or running back.  Rare though it is, this matchup could get ugly.

Dallas 31, Washington 13

Cincinnati (+7):

            Both of these teams sport above average defenses and mediocre offenses.  Thus, at least as I see it, seven points is a lot.  Cincinnati has not lost a game by more than seven points all season.  Inevitably, locating such a statistic will spell my demise. That said, the Ravens seem to find inopportune moments to become utterly dull on offense…and this could be one of them.

Baltimore 16, Cincinnati 13

Seattle (+3):

            Seattle, though clearly not a contender, seems fully competent, and thus, should handle a division rival that has struggled all season long.  Though Seattle on the road is always an unsettling bet, in this case, the thought of laying points with the Rams seems too much to rationalize.

Seattle 19, St. Louis 17

Arizona (+10):

            San Francisco is clearly the superior team.  However, the 49ers grind teams down rather than annihilating them.  The 49ers have exactly two wins this season by more than ten points.  The Cardinals have exactly two losses this season by more than ten points.  Simply put, I see this game as being far too low-scoring to justify such a spread, especially with the number being 10.  Were this 8.5 or 9, I would probably go the other way.

San Francisco 23, Arizona 17

ATLANTA (-6.5):

            I’m not ready to declare Chris Johnson “back,” despite his ability to rack up some garbage-time statistics last week against the Panthers.  Meanwhile, Atlanta has the potential to overwhelm teams in their dome, especially given the frustration they are almost certainly feeling following their heartbreaking divisional loss to the Saints last weekend.  Once again, the line falls just short of a key number.  I might have been willing to take Tennessee +7.

Atlanta 27, Tennessee 20

CHICAGO (-3.5):

            The only team this season to win at Soldier field has been the Packers…and that game was hardly a blowout.  Meanwhile, the Chargers have been free-falling in a terrible manner.  While I certainly can see the argument for taking the points, especially given the “greater-than a field goal” spread, this is a Southern California team traveling to cold, windy Chicago…I don’t see the Chargers turning it around here.

Chicago 24, San Diego 17

NY GIANTS (-5.5):

            No Vick.  No Maclin.  The Eagles’ offensive line is mediocre, and Vince Young cannot escape like Michael Vick.  My only reservation lies in the fact that as frequently as Eagles teams break the hearts of their fans, they also find a way to play well in circumstances when expectations are tremendously low.  That said, the Giants are a good team, playing at home, against a rival they’d love to bury, in primetime.  Could be ugly.

New York Giants 31, Philadelphia 20

Kansas City (+14.5)
            Last week was the only game of the Patriots’ season in which they would have covered the spread of this game.  The Chiefs are playing with their backup quarterback on Monday Night Football, and ordinarily, this would absolutely be grounds for laying almost any number of points, but the fact is, the Patriots are very weak defensively.  Given the spread, and the late, garbage-time drives, to lay these points, one must essentially bet that the Pats will be up 34-10 as the game winds down…I doubt they allow only 10 points.

New England 34, Kansas City 24