Picks, Week 10

Week 10.  Where the Colts have their best change to obtain their first win, my Eagles home to fade into obscurity, and both of my fantasy teams require wins to remain relevant.

Picks:
 

SAN DIEGO (-7):

            Thursday night games involve short weeks of preparation and are highly levered in favor of the home team.  Carson Palmer was “Tebowed” last week.  Phillip Rivers, in all his snap-taking and interception-throwing ineptitude, is still a considerably superior player.  Also, we are rapidly approaching the time of year at which the San Diego Chargers begin to flex the muscles their roster would suggest.  Or maybe that’s just Shawn Merriman’s PEDs.

San Diego 31, Oakland 17  (Not even close)

New Orleans (+1):

            I’m not yet sold on the Falcons, though I will concede that their dome is a significant edge.  However, it seems that edge has been well-priced into this line.  New Orleans would probably be a 3-4 point favorite on a neutral field, and the fact that they are receiving a point suggests the public will eager to take Atlanta.  It won’t be a Brees, but I imagine the Saints will ultimately prevail.

New Orleans 31, Atlanta 28

CINCINNATI (+3.5):

            Pittsburgh has simply not played like a team that deserves to lay 3.5 on the road against a 6-2 team.  The Bengals have lived off the fat of the land so to speak with wins over Cle, Jax, Indy, and Sea…and have been judged harshly for it.  The Steelers have wins over Ari, Jax, Indy, and Sea so clearly…oh wait..it’s essentially the same list.  These teams are fairly evenly matched…and one team is getting more than a field goal.

Pittsburgh 23, Cincinnati 21

CLEVELAND (-2.5):

            I’m all over the state of Ohio (quick, check my blood pressure, I’m feeling dizzy).  The Browns play defense.  They don’t do much else, but they play defense.  That should be sufficient against a Rams team that will struggle mightily to move the ball on the road.

Cleveland 20, St. Louis 16

DALLAS (-5.5):

            Buffalo owns a single road win – in week one against a Chiefs team that looked so dysfunctional that they were underdogs against the Colts thereafter.  The Cowboys, though they do, from time to time, look abysmal, have considerably more talent on both sides of the ball than the Bills.  Unless Jerry Jones decides to start calling plays (which isn’t, you know, altogether impossible), Dallas rolls.

Dallas 30, Buffalo 24

INDIANAPOLIS (+3):

            I have been wrong so very many times with the Colts.  Now, this team is starting down the specter of 0-16 in a very legitimate way.  Following this game, this team will host Cam Newton, followed by trips to Foxborough and Baltimore, home against Tennessee and Houston, and then finally, a trip to Jacksonville to end the season.  This is their opportunity to avoid what would essentially amount to a sign on their backs which reads “Peyton Manning is my sole means of seeming competitive.”

Indianapolis 19, Jacksonville 17

KANSAS CITY (-3):

            Dear lord, what is Tim Tebow?  A fantasy savant assured of 60+ yards rushing, 150+ yards passing, and either a rushing TD or a couple in the air?  An utterly incompetent, awkward-delivery, misplaced phenom for whom one must configure an NFL offense to resemble the college spread?  A polarizing religious figure so unfailingly appropriate and polite as to seem disingenuous by the impossibility of such kindness under criticism to be legitimate?  The only topic worthy of discussion in any game in which he plays?  I don’t know.  I’ll take the home team.

Kansas City 27, Denver 20

MIAMI (-4):

            This game demands that I do one of two things for which I would normally ask that someone viciously slap my face to return me to lucidity.  The first is to wager upon John Beck on the road, a backup quarterback leading a team which has not won a game in six weeks and seemed rudderless over that span.  The second is to lay points with a 1-7 team with a lame duck coach and the repeatedly demonstrated ability to seize defeat from the jaws of victory.  I’m sickened at the prospect of either wager.

Miami 17, Washington 13

Arizona (+14):

            What have the Eagles done to warrant laying two touchdowns?  They are what their record says they are, a 3-5 team with glimpses of talent lodged amidst the pugnacious odor of underachievement.  The Eagles, were they truly a dream team, would, with vicious, righteous, self-determined rage, lay waste to an inferior team for their home crowd.  They would embarrass an overmatched John Skelton and blanket Larry Fitzgerald with any of their shiny baubles, their three pro-bowl cornerbacks…but they are not.

Philadelphia 27, Arizona 17 

TAMPA BAY (+3.5):

            This is a 4-4 team with losses against Detroit, San Fran, Chicago, and New Orleans.  They have also beaten the Saints and Falcons.  They are being given 3.5 points, at home, against a team that, while 6-3, has wins against Indy, Miami, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Cleveland.  Once again, two evenly matched teams.  I am happy to have more than a FG on my wager.

Tampa Bay 27, Houston 24

CAROLINA (-3.5):

            Chris Johnson’s performance last week might have been viewed as disappointing if not for the prism through which it was viewed, considerably more galling displays of ineptitude.  I’ll take Cam and company.  Neither team is great, but one at least seems to put points on the board with some consistency.

Carolina 23, Tennessee 16

SEATTLE (+6.5):

            After Baltimore’s first victory over Pittsburgh, the ensuing week, they traveled to Tennessee and lost by 13.  The second victory, as exhilarating as it was, was a bloodbath from which their ought to be an inevitable letdown.  Combine this with the inexplicable edge from Seattle’s home-field and I’ll take 6.5.

Seattle 19, Baltimore 17

Detroit (+2.5):

            Another letdown game.  Chicago has a short week of preparation following their win over the Eagles on Monday night.  Now they face a defensive front seven capable of harassing Cutler and an offense which should move the ball somewhat.  This pick could go either way, but I’ll take the Lions.

Detroit 24, Chicago 23

NY Giants (+3.5):

            Not sold on the 49ers.  This is a team that was losing by 20 points to my Eagles at one point.  I fully expect that the Giants will move the ball through the air against an unspectacular secondary, even without Nicks.  I fully expect the Giants’ front seven to give Alex Smith plenty of reason to turn back into a pumpkin.  This is when the 49ers begin their return to earth.

NY Giants 24, San Francisco 20

New England (+1.5):

            They won the first matchup by 9 points.  The move from Foxborough to Jersey is not worth 10.5 points.  Despite the rather putrid secondary, Mark Sanchez is mediocre, Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, and this will be another opportunity for Rex Ryan to ask for a rematch in January.

New England 23, NY Jets 20

GREEN BAY (-13):

            Christian Ponder, making his 3^rd start, at Lambeau, on Monday Night football.  The Packers, while perhaps not as all-time dominant as they are perceived to be, are, on this night, two touchdowns better than their opposition.  Expect fireworks for the rowdy cheeseheads.

Green Bay 34, Minnesota 17