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Sunday, December 4, 2011

Picks, Week 13


Week 13,
  The Eagles have already embarrassed their fans in a manner which equals many of our previous heartbreaking moments.  This time, the culprit was not mental gaffes, or inopportune errors, but rather, unabashed apathy.  Disgusting.  In any case, one of my fantasy teams is still worth following.   

Philadelphia (-3):
            There are so very many reasons to pick the Seahawks.  This is a short-week of preparation, which generally favors the home team.  Seattle’s home-field advantage is generally perceived to be quite substantial. Vick & Maclin are out, McCoy and Nnamdi are game-time decisions…Fine…but here’s what I know about an Eagles team under Andy Reid that I have watched for 12+ years: they build expectations and dash them.   This team has won at the Meadowlands as a touchdown underdog, dominated the Cowboys,  led the Falcons by 10 points in Atlanta before Vick left the game, and led the 49ers and Bears in the 4th quarter.  They win when winning is not expected.  The Eagles crumble beneath the weight of expectations, and more specifically, their fans…they have only one home win this season (3-2 on the road).  The Eagles were 6-2 on the road last season as well.  They’ll win tonight, because we are certain they will not.
Philadelphia 23, Seattle 13

BUFFALO (-1):  These are two fairly evenly matched teams, albeit with perhaps a bit more firepower offensively on the part of the Bills, even with C.J. Spiller doing a very poor Fred Jackson impersonation.  Buffalo is not getting the requisite 3-points as a home team.  Chris Johnson’s recent resurgence notwithstanding, this team probably should have beaten the Jets last week (if Steve Johnson spent more time catching footballs and less time simulating busting a cap in his own leg) and is certainly good enough for this matchup today.
Buffalo 24, Tennessee 20

CHICAGO (-7):  Tyler Palko on the road…against a very hungry, opportunistic defense.  The Bears, had Caleb Hanie not thrown any of his three interceptions, probably beat the Raiders.  Playing on the road, against a decent team, in a hostile environment with a QB making his first start of the season led to a close loss…what happens when the Chiefs, with a scrub QB of their own come to town?
Chicago 24, Kansas City 13

Oakland (+3.5):  Way too damn tempting to grab that extra half a point.  I recognize that the Dolphins have been frisky lately, especially given their 10-day post-Thanksgiving mini-bye.  However, the Raiders, in my opinion, are the superior football team.  There is a reason that one team has 3 wins, and the other has 7. 
Oakland 20, Miami 17

MINNESOTA (+1):  “ ‘Till the roof comes off, ‘till the lights go out…”  Yes, that’s right, I’m quoting Eminem – a song entitled “ ‘Till my bones collapse.”  I’m betting against Tim Tebow.  The question of whether the NFL will begin to catch wise and shut down his offense is not an “if,” but a “when.”  In the 6 games he has started, his team has scored 112 points in regulation.  This includes a 38 point outburst in Oakland.  The remaining games (in regulation): 15, 10, 17, 13, 13.  If someone finds some points on offense, or makes one or two plays on defense/special teams, the Broncos are in trouble.  When they were getting a touchdown in each game, I might have felt differently.
Minnesota 17, Denver 13

NEW ENGLAND (-20.5):  Yes.  That’s right.  I’m laying three touchdowns.  Brady and his coach have no conscience.  The Colts have no pride or desire to fight for respectability.  They are throwing Dan Orlovsky into the fire.  Though overconfidence could prove to be an issue, I think the Patriots drop “eff you” TDs left and right, and re-assume the villainous role they so richly covet.
New England 42, Indianapolis 10.

PITTSBURGH (-6.5):  Division game, played in Pittsburgh, against a team the Steelers believe has gotten too close for comfort.  The Bengals are a solid football team, but walking into Pittsburgh in December is a task that I believe is simply too tall for Andy Dalton & co.  Admittedly, if our favorite Head & Shoulders pitchman sits, things change somewhat, but I just think the Steelers will be too much here.
Pittsburgh 27, Cincinnati 17

Carolina (+2.5):  Two thoroughly mediocre teams.  Cam is still hungry for every win, trying to amass a respectable record in his rookie season.  Meanwhile, the Bucs are free-falling “out into nothing…”  and like Tom Petty’s protagonist, will break the hearts of those who believe in them.  This game is likely to be a mess…two teams that cannot stop the run in a meaningless divisional undercard.  I’ll take the points and cross my fingers.
Carolina 23, Tampa Bay 21

NY Jets (-1.5):  The Jets are disappointing, but they are still 6-5, with wildcard aspirations.  They have an average quarterback, an average offense, and a slightly above average defense.  That does not sound like a superbowl contender as their coach so frequently espouses.  However, it does sound better than the Redskins.
NY Jets 20, Washington 16

Atlanta (-1): I understand that the Texans play solid defense and run the football effectively.  They are now rolling out their 3rd string quarterback.  Without any other information, I must presume he is less than or equal to Matt Leinart (who ain’t Joe Montana) in talent.  Thus, while I do think the Texans can simply dominate bad teams at the line of scrimmage and render their QB deficiencies irrelevant, I think the Falcons will absolutely be too much.  The Falcons will get their 24 points.  I don’t think the Texans can keep up.
Atlanta 24, Houston 17

CLEVELAND (+7):  This is the frisky, bad team of Bill Simmons fame.  While their offense leaves much to be desired, and will likely suffer at the hands of the Ravens, their defense is absolutely legitimate.  Given that this game is in Cleveland, and Baltimore often plays down to their opposition, I suspect this is an ugly game that is far closer than Ravens fans would suspect and/or desire.
Baltimore 16, Cleveland 13.

Green Bay (-6.5):  The game of the week!  Everyone seems to believe the Giants possess the pass rush to foil Rodgers and break this undefeated season.  I believe that to be wishful thinking.  This team struggled to stop Alex Smith three weeks ago, lost to the Eagles at the Meadowlands, then allowed 7 touchdowns to Drew Brees et al.  Rodgers is going to get his – the only question is whether Eli can keep up.  I say no…and Rodgers has been waiting for 10 days.
Green Bay 34, New York 24

Dallas (-4.5):  Let not that slightly underwhelming performance on Thanksgiving day sway you.  This team is going to score against the Cardinals, and Kevin Kolb is not going to provide an adequate response.  They too have had 10 days to prepare, and have every motivation to perform as they did not against the Dolphins.  This has the potential to get out of hand.
Dallas 31, Arizona 17

St. Louis (+13.5):  Amazingly, the Rams have already lost 5 games by two touchdowns or more.  This Sunday, they find themselves opposite a 9-2 division rival with a vicious defense and plenty to play for.  This, this pick is disconcerting – betting on a bad team to keep things close on the road.  Yet, the 49ers tend to play close games, preferring to grid teams down with Gore.  I suspect 13.5 is just a bit too high.
San Francisco 24, St. Louis 13

NEW ORLEANS (-9):  This team scores in bunches, the boy named Suh will be nowhere to be found, and Brees is threatening Marino’s pass records.  Seems like the Saints, when motivated, can light up the scoreboard on anyone, especially in the superdome.  Meanwhile, Calvin Johnson can only catch so many jump balls, and g-d knows who will be taking handoffs for the Lions.
New Orleans 38, Detroit 24

San Diego (-3):  One of the worst Monday Night Football games in recent memory, played between two teams suffering through utterly miserable seasons.  The Chargers, unlike the Jags, do actually possess a legitimate quarterback (or so I have thought).  The Chargers, unlike the Jags, had expectations of superbowl grandeur.  I don’t believe the Chargers will make it seven in a row.
San Diego 24, Jacksonville 17

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