Picks, Week 16

Week 16, where remarkably, the Eagles are not mathematically eliminated, and both of my fantasy football teams have unceremoniously shuffled off into the consolation brackets.

Thursday Night Pick:

INDIANAPOLIS (+7):  Home team, short week of preparation, getting a touchdown against a rookie, 3rd string quarterback making his 4th career NFL start.  If the team on which I were wagering were any team other than the 1-13 Colts, this would be a trivial decision.  However, it is the putrid Colts, who might actually be set up for a letdown game following their phoenix-like rise from the depths of winlessness.  That said, I believe the pressure of avoiding 0-16 is a weight off their shoulders.  This game will be respectable.

Houston 20, Indianapolis 17

Denver (-2.5):  Tim Tebow crashed to earth last week, finally losing a game to a superior quarterback on a superior team.  That said, he didn’t exactly play poorly.  Currently, given Houston’s loss on Thursday, the Broncos still have an outside shot at the #3 seed in the playoffs, which would spare them playing the Ravens/Steelers first.  The Bills, on the other hand, are in a state of free fall.  I see no reason the Broncos defense can’t contain the Bills while Tebow puts up just enough offensively to win.

Denver 20, Buffalo 17

Arizona (+4.5):  Don’t look now, but the Cardinals have won six of their last seven games.  The Bengals meanwhile, are facing down the prospect of missing the playoffs after a 6-2 start to the season and might not have the experience to stave off the inevitable disappointment.  Expect one or two big plays from Fitzgerald, and one or two key rookie mistakes from Dalton…oh…and the  Bengals had better not punt to Patrick Peterson.

Arizona 20, Cincinnati 19

TENNESSEE (-7):  With the exclusion of their 41-point outburst against a Buccaneers team that should be on a milk carton right about now (because they haven’t shown up in months), the Jags simply do not score points.  The Titans, though they are clearly not an offensive juggernaut, should manage to reach a respectable total.  In a game like this, that should be sufficient.

Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 13

Oakland (+1):  This has letdown written all over it.  The Chiefs, playing the defensive game of their lives, stymie Rodgers and company and defeat a 13-0 team.  Now, they face a Raiders team that still has playoff aspirations.  Moreover, despite the collapse against Detroit, the Raiders have shown they can move the ball, and the Chiefs still are limited offensively. 

Oakland 20, Kansas City 13

NEW ENGLAND (-9):  If the opponent was any equally mediocre team other than the Dolphins, who seem to have the Pats’ number, I think this line might be 12+ points.  That said,  the Patriots can sniff that #1 seed, and when Tom Brady’s opposite number is the hardly Canton-bound Matt Moore,  I cannot see the Dolphins possessing the artillery to keep it close.

New England 31, Miami 17

New York Giants (+3):  Firstly, this is not a road game by any traditional definition.  Sure, they might find themselves in the visitor’s locker room, and some fans will wear green, but the travel is non-existent.  Secondly, the Giants know that they are in control of their own destiny against a Jets team which was absolutely manhandled by the Eagles last week.  While I will be rooting vociferously against the G-men this afternoon, I do expect them to pull it off.

New York Giants 24, New York Jets, 20

St. Louis (+12):  Wow.  I cannot determine what is more unsettling, the fact that this line is asking us to lay 12-points with Charlie Batch, or the fact that I actually gave that legitimate consideration.  The Rams defense is certainly not the equal of the 49ers defense that stymied an immobile Roethlisberger last Monday night.  However, Charlie Batch is hardly a dominant NFL signal caller.  Expect Clemens to play conservatively, the Steelers to try to run the ball constantly, and the game to stay close enough to make 12-points too much.

Pittsburgh 20, St. Louis 16

Minnesota (+7):  Other than the incentives to “Suck for Luck,” I would actually consider the Vikings nearly equal to the Redskins.  Grossman has his moments of seeming talented, and simultaneously, horrifying anyone who backs him.  Adrian Peterson will probably see 20-snaps, and Percy Harvin has, of late, become the electric playmaker we all expected him to be from his days at Florida.  The Vikings do enough here, then miraculously lose at the end…

Washington 21, Vikings 20

CAROLINA (-9):  Another game that makes me somewhat nauseated.  The Buccaneers haven’t won a game since mid-October.  Only twice in that span has the margin of defeat been less than a touchdown.  The last time these two teams met, I eagerly started Mr. Blount in fantasy football, certain that he would run roughshod over a porous Carolina run defense.  11 carries for 19 yards later, I lost all faith in the Bucs.  This wager reflects a vote of no-confidence.

Carolina 27, Tampa Bay 13

Cleveland (+12.5):  As has often been the case with my Cleveland wagers, I constantly return to my belief that this team can play solid NFL defense.  Thus, to lay 12.5 points against them, one must feel comfortable in expecting them not to score 10 points.  I think they make just enough plays here, and the Ravens, though they are still gunning for a 1^st round bye, will not light up the scoreboard here:

Baltimore 20, Cleveland 13

San Diego (+1):  Let’s review.  It’s December.  The Chargers were highly disappointing for the majority of this season.  The pundits called for the head of Norv Turner.  Now, despite a massive losing streak previously, the Chargers have an outside shot at the playoffs.  Have we seen this script before?  Now it is time to ride the Chargers.

San Diego 31, Detroit 27

DALLAS (-1):  Oh, how I wish it weren’t so.  The Eagles have, once again, convinced the media and their fans that with a couple breaks, they could make a miraculous recovery and find themselves in the playoffs.  Now, they can break our hearts once again.  The only mitigating factor is Tony Romo’s well-accepted ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory when winter comes.  Of course, in this case, Romo is not the problem.  Expect both teams to make grizzly mistakes…and the Cowboys to make a play down the stretch.

Dallas 31, Philadelphia 27

San Francisco (-1):  I could probably talk myself into betting the Seahawks, winners of five of their last six, certainly a sizable homefield advantage, a short week of preparation for the 49ers, etc.  However, the 49ers want that bye, and have not allowed a rushing TD all season…beast mode may be ineffective today.  Now isn’t a time to get cute.  I’ll take the better team laying one and move on.

San Francisco 19, Seattle 13

GREEN BAY (-11):  I will not over-analyze this.  The Bears just lost at home by 24 to Tavaris Jackson.  They now start Josh McCown.  If their opponent was an average team, one might still lay 11-points.  Today, they face the best team in the NFL.  Remember, despite a poor showing, they are 13-1, not 7-7.  Expect a handful of discount double-checks®, and some boneheaded offensive plays by the Bears which lead to points the other way.

Green Bay 30, Chicago 13

NEW ORLEANS (-7):  This offensive has been a buzz-saw, especially in their dome.  The Saints have failed to score 30 points exactly one at home (they scored 27).  The Falcons are not a dominant road team.  Make a conservative assumption that the Saints score 31-34 points.  How confident are you that the Falcons score 24-27?  I won’t bet on it.

New Orleans 34, Atlanta 23